Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

S&P 2020 Critical....Is Stocks Bear Market Already Here?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Nov 14, 2015 - 09:18 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

If we look at this market we can see the S&P 500 has lost all of its moving averages, although the 200- and 50-day exponential moving averages are right above today's close. They are both at 2037, so we can still get back fairly easily with one small rally. The problem is directly below. If we visit the S&P 500 daily chart we can see that on September 17 of this year we touched 2020, and then immediately tailed off and fell hard, all the way down to 1871. From there the market rallied once again, and hit 2020 for four candle sticks before finally breaking out. Once it broke out it back tested again with four candle sticks. A breakout then occurred, thus, 2020 is critically important support. Losing 2020 by a few points is not a breakdown, but you get the idea. You don't want to lose 2020 with force.


If we do it's quite possible the market has made the u-turn, and, thus, the bear market has begun and done so without any distribution off the top. It is possible that the way the big money did their dirty deed was by slowly removing themselves over time and we can see that in many of the broken stocks all over this market. I can't be sure about this yet, since we haven't forcefully lost 2020 on the S&P 500 at this moment in time. Just something to keep in mind. So now we discover what's next by watching 2020 with intense scrutiny. It's almost that time folks. Let's hope we get that one last rally I thought was likely, but if we don't we need to be ready for what's coming, and it won't be pretty. Protection and preservation of capital will be key over the next 12-18 months. If the bear has begun we would need unwinding up before shorting since the short-term sixty-minute charts are so violently oversold along with the daily stochastic's also being oversold.

The monthly charts I've been speaking of for so long are about ready to do their dirty deed, either from here or from one final move higher. But make no mistake, it's my belief that they'll kick in soon enough either way and cause some real pain for folks. I think the next year or so won't be too much fun if you're a bull. There will be usual wonderful, counter-trend rallies along the way when things hit critical support zones at extreme levels of oversold. The trend for some time to come, once the bear truly kicks in, will be lower and at times with intense force. If you're prepared for it you'll be fine. If you're not things will get tough on you emotionally.

Now let's stop for a moment and ask ourselves, is Jack right? I could be 100% wrong on my call. Most folks are definitely not calling for the bear market the way I am, and I totally respect that. There are some very smart and wise folks out there who say the bull will continue on throughout the coming year or so. They may be right. I may be wrong, but I have to live with what I see, and my work says the best is over or at best, one more rally, but the best for sure is over. Even if we make new highs the way it'll get done is through fewer and fewer stocks leading the way. It won't be across the board meaning it won't be healthy. New market highs won't necessarily equate to a healthy environment. We watch and learn every day. For the perma bulls out there, let's hope for one final move up.

Let me sum this up. I'm just a voice in the crowd. Some may agree with my thinking. Most probably don't. You have to decide for yourselves whether I'm on the right track or the wrong one. The monthly charts tell me market death is coming meaning a nasty bear market. There's always exceptions in this game. Maybe this time for some unknown reason those monthly charts and grossly overbought P/E stocks won't matter this time. That's always a possibility. I do my best. I guide as I see it. I am in the minority and most of you have many services to help guide you. Go with your heart. Go with what feels right to you.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in