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Forget About QE… I’m Worried About UC

Economics / Inflation Sep 21, 2012 - 02:25 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Economics

Let’s just be blunt here.

Inflation is back in a big way. It’s not going to show up in the official numbers, but if you’ve paid for gas or food or healthcare recently, you’ve no doubt noticed that:


A)   Things are a lot more expensive

B)   You get way less bang for your buck (food packages are shrinking while prices remain the same)

This has been the case for some time now. However, the Fed’s QE 3 program, combined with the ECB’s OMT program, (both of which are “open ended” or “unlimited” in scope), have taken things to a whole new level.

Which is why we need to be concerned not with QE, but with UC: Unintended Consequences.

The Fed is largely composed of academics with little if any professional/ banking experience. These are people who use flawed data (case in point, the inflation measures in the US are a joke) to build models that they believe explain how reality works.

Setting aside the math and intelligence used to build these models, pure common sense begs the question, “how can someone who’s never worked in the real world, build a model to explain reality?

The simple fact is that they can’t… which is why the Fed’s policies have and will continue to unleash a slew of Unintended Consequences.

For instance, QE 2, which saw the Fed spending $600 billion, pushed food prices to record highs, kicking off a wave of riots and civil unrest throughout the Middle East.

So what will QE 3 bring?

The short answer is: nothing pretty. Gas and food prices were already high before the Fed announced QE 3. They will be going much higher in the future (Oil is currently falling based on Saudi Arabia working with the US Government to suppress prices).

Higher inflation means higher operating costs for corporations. Corporate managers (folks with real world experience) will adjust accordingly, most likely by firing people.

Which pushes unemployment even higher.

Those investors looking for actionable investment ideas could also consider our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter: a bi-weekly detailed investment advisory service that distills the most important geopolitical, economic, and financial developments in the markets into concise investment strategies for individual investors.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

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