Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Important Short Term Juncture

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Nov 13, 2011 - 05:09 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVolatile week ends mixed to lower in world equity markets. After an 18 day, 20.3%, rally from SPX 1075 to 1293 the market has spent the past eleven trading days between 1215 and 1287. Positive economic reports for the week outnumbered negative reports, for the first time in many weeks, two to one. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, import/export prices and the monetary base. On the uptick: consumer credit, the twin deficits, consumer sentiment, the M1-multiplier, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, but the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Asian markets declined 2.2%, European markets gained 0.5%, and the DJ World was -0.2%. Next week we have a slew of important economic reports, and it’s Opex week.


LONG TERM: neutral

We continue to remain neutral long term for several reasons. After the market declined in five waves from May11 @ SPX 1371 to Oct11 @ SPX 1075 we identified that important low two days after it occurred. Then as the market rallied, in what appeared to be a B wave retracement rally, it took on the look of an ongoing impulse wave. This was a bit of a surprise as we only expected a rally to SPX 1258, and possibly a bit more, to overlap the first wave of the five wave decline and retrace 61.8% of the decline. We expected the uptrend to be choppy, but it impulsed right up to SPX 1293. See daily SPX chart.

Historical analysis of Primary II waves suggested, once the 61.8% retracement level was exceeded, a potential 12 month bear market could unfold with a Major B wave that could retest, (within -3.5% to +1.0%), the bull market high. This allows this Major B to continue higher, reaching between SPX 1323 and 1383. The implusive looking rally, however, suggests it was either an Intermediate wave A of an ongoing Major wave B, or the bear market actually ended at SPX 1075. In either case we would have expected to see higher prices in the next few months before seeing SPX 1075 again, if at all. However, there is a possibility that Major wave B concluded at the recent high. We’ll get into that in the next section.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1293

The uptrend, that started in the beginning of October, first ran into resistance at the Int. iv SPX 1231 high, then the Int. i SPX 1258 low, and finally the series of resistance levels going back several months in the lower 1290′s. This was quite a strong impulsive surge lasting only 18 trading days and retracing 74% of the entire five wave, five month, decline from SPX 1371 to 1075.

We initially started counting this rally as a series of zigzags and have that count still posted on the SPX charts. When it started looking more impulsive that corrective we added a more bullish count on the DOW charts, and switched from long term bearish to long term neutral. Before making the long term bullish/bearish determination we need to observe this uptrend, in its entirety, and the next downtrend. If this uptrend remains impulsive and the following downtrend is corrective we’ll turn bullish. If this uptrend ends in a corrective fashion we’ll return to long term bearish.

After the SPX 1293 uptrend high two weeks ago this market started to turn choppy. We have had a sharp 3 day decline to SPX 1215, a 4 day rally to SPX 1278, a 1 day decline to SPX 1227 and now a 2 day rally to SPX 1267. When the 4 day rally looked corrective and then turned down we went into the defensive mode, posting a potential uptrend high at SPX 1293, and Minor wave 1 and 2 at SPX 1215 and SPX 1273 respectively. To eliminate this count the market will first need to rally beyond SPX 1278, and then SPX 1293. This would suggest the alternate count posted: an Int. wave A at SPX 1293, and an Int. wave B at SPX 1215 with Int. wave C underway. It could also mean that this uptrend is turning choppy and the Major B wave bear market scenario is again in force. Should this occur we would expect the SPX 1075 level to be revisited and possibly exceeded in 2012.

The DOW charts post a more bullish SPX count, with similar short term parameters, where we labeled the SPX 1293 high as the end of Intermediate wave one. Intermediate wave two would be underway now.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Short term OEW charts will remain positive as long as the market holds SPX 1250. Should this uptrend continue, the Int. C wave scenario, we have three fibonacci overhead resistance levels ahead: SPX 1298 (Int. C = 0.382 Int. A), SPX 1324 (Int. C = 0.50 Int. A), and SPX 1350 (Int. C = 0.618 Int. A). There are OEW overhead pivots at 1291, 1303, 1313 and then 1363. The historical Major B scenario suggests a range between SPX 1323 and 1385.

If the uptrend concluded at SPX 1293, in the impulsive mode, we have several fibonacci support levels targeted. SPX 1210 = 0.382 Int. i, SPX 1184 = 0.50 Int. i, SPX 1158 = 0.618 Int. i, and SPX 1126 = 0.764 Int. i. These levels are posted on the SPX 60min chart above. The recent rally from SPX 1215 to 1278 retraced 76.4% of the decline from 1293 to 1215. Below is the more bullish 60min count posted on the DOW charts.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 2.2%. All confirmed uptrends with the exception of Hong Kong’s HSI.

The European markets were mixed for a net gain of 0.5%. All are in confirmed uptrends.

The Commodity Equity group were all lower on the week for a net loss of 0.7%. Only Brazil’s BVSP is in a confirmed uptrend.

The DJ World index is uptrending, but lost 0.2% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bond prices are getting quite close to confirming an uptrend. Bonds lost 0.4% on the week.

Crude has been uptrending since early October and gained 5.1% on the week.

Gold is in an uptrend as well and gained 1.9% for the week.

The USD remains in an uptrend, a volatile one at that, and was flat on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Busy week ahead. On tuesday we have the PPI, Retail sales, the NY FED and Business inventories. Wednesday, the CPI, Industrial production, and NAHB housing. Thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Housing starts, Building permits and the Philly FED. Then on friday Leading indicators and Options expiration. Nothing scheduled, at this time, for the FED. It appears we are an important juncture that can swing either way in the short term. Keep an eye on European markets. Their sovereign debt crisis is driving markets worldwide. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules