Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Revolutions When US Presidents Are Soft: Might Egypt Be Like Iran?

Politics / Middle East Feb 01, 2011 - 04:15 AM GMT

By: Andrew_Butter

Politics

There is a lot in common between the Iranian Revolution and the current almost revolution in Egypt that is being played out.

In both cases there was a huge popular uprising against a corrupt, brutal, venal and un-democratic government who relied heavily on police, secret police, and torture, to stay in power, headed up by self admiring despots.


And then, and this is the kicker, when the police were over-run and the army were called onto the streets to keep order, they didn’t start machine-gunning the population and running over them with tanks.

Some American Presidents tolerate that sort of thing, they say “tut-tut, but of course law and order must be maintained”. And the alternative is state-terrorism and threats down the road, to (US) National security, and of course, International Law, so sometimes leaders must be “tough”.

As if International Laws as in those feebly enforced by the International Criminal Court, or even the bits of the Geneva Convention they don’t like (as in the ones about protecting civilian populations and torture), have ever bothered “tough” American Presidents.

So the “tough-guys” say, “open up, we will turn a blind eye”. The idea there goes with the CIA maxim, “we know he’s a son of a female dog, but he is OUR son of a female dog”.

For years President Mubarak has been a very loyal son of a female dog insofar as American interests are concerned. And we can conveniently forget that the terrorist cell that spawned the 9/11 atrocity was born and bread in Egypt and all Osama did was provide financing; all the more reason of course to support the torture cells in Egypt that were “tough on terrorism”. Just as the torture cells in Iran under the Shah that were “tough on communism”, were tacitly supported.

Then you get a change of government in USA and then the game changes. President Carter was “soft”, he vacillated, he talked about “fair-and-free-elections” (now where have I heard that one recently), and that’s why the Shah hesitated on giving the order to shoot-to-kill.

That’s what’s happening in Egypt. There comes a point, when the army is embraced by the crowds, that it’s game-over.

There is another thing about Egypt which is similar to the situation in Iran, when the population rose out and threw out their (previously) American supported despot.

Then there was no clear political successor. Many people forget that in Iran the people on the streets were mainly, and certainly initially, “liberal-minded” (or in CIA parlance at the time “commies”).

 The banner of “Islam” was in many cases little more than shorthand; or a flag of convenience for students and young people. That revolution was not driven by the clerics, Khomeini wasn’t even interested in setting up a government, he was just anti-Shah and anti the persecution of Islam by the Shah, and the people on the streets were not “Islamist” any more than they all believed in Islam.

Not many people, particularly the Americans, realised that the hostage taking at the US Embassy was orchestrated by leftists, not the clerics. Sure the clerics exploited that, and the clerics that corrupted the revolution exploited it more, but in many ways it was a cry of help for USA to act to help promote democracy and good governance; that was ignored.

In Egypt there is no clear successor to Mubarak, that’s the problem with regimes which brutally stamp out any dissent.

All that’s left is Islam, which is the natural fall-back. Yet the experience of governments that have been dominated by the sacred laws of Islam (the Taliban and Iran), rather than governments that simply respect Islam and acknowledge its importance (UAE is a good example), is less than encouraging.

Let’s see if the American Government, which did more than anyone to help create the power-base for President Mubarak, will act a little smarter with revolution in Egypt, that they reacted to the revolution in Iran.

By Andrew Butter

Twenty years doing market analysis and valuations for investors in the Middle East, USA, and Europe; currently writing a book about BubbleOmics. Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2011 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Andrew Butter Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in