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EUA Carbon Emissions Trading, How Far for the Bears?

Commodities / Commodities Trading Sep 25, 2009 - 07:28 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Since we introduced the EUA contract to the Commodity Specialist Guide in July the market has been recovering towards its May peak of 16.00. However, recently a clear break of uptrend has favoured the bears, but key support may not be far off.


The Commodity Trader’s view


WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:

The 38.2% recovery level has proved a tough hurdle to pass, and remains first key resistance on this long term chart.

However, we think that shorter term weakness will prove temporary and we have identified two key support areas – see below.

 

DAILY CHART – DEC-09:

The break of uptrend and small channel base were clear bear signals – currently s/term rallies are still viewed as temporary.

A close below the old 13.00 38.2% pullback level will be the next bear sign, but the first of two key supports then lies not far away – the 12.00 area which encompasses the 50% pullback, bear channel base projection and a Fibo projection just below.

We would expect at least temporary support from this.

Lower down lays 10.22/9.93 (another Fibo projection and 76.4% level) – this becomes next bear target if the 12.00 area fails.

In the Guide we have tried to sell on suitable rallies towards the 14.66 02-Sep low, but have not had the satisfaction – but currently we are still sellers on suitable rallies.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2009 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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