Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Positive Technicals

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Jun 20, 2009 - 11:54 AM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe good news is: • While the market was down last week, there was no increase in the number of new lows.


Short Term

Short term, the market is overbought.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and an indicator showing the percentage out of the last 3 trading days that the NASDAQ AD line has been up (OTC ADL %UP) in orange. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

As of Friday's close the OTC ADL has been up for 3 consecutive days, something it has done 5 other times since the early March low. In 3 of the 5 occurrences the OTC ADL went up for 1 more day prior to a short term reversal. The other 2 times the market reversed after the 3rd up day.

Next Monday and/or Tuesday are likely to be down.

Intermediate term

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and an indicator showing a 40% trend (4day EMA) of the ratio of NASDAQ new highs to new lows. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50% level. The indicator turned upward Thursday after falling sharply in the earlier part of the week. Nothing really bad is likely to happen as long as the indicator is above the 50% level.

Seasonality

Next week includes the week prior to the 4th Friday of June during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables show the daily return on a percentage basis for the week prior to the 4th Friday of June during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2008 and SPX data from 1953 - 2008. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Monday, the day following future and options expiration, has been a consistently bad day. Otherwise, the SPX has been modestly positive during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle, while returns have been modestly negative by all other measures.

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of June. The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle. Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 -0.50% -0.11% -0.11% -0.78% -1.51% -3.01%
 
1969-1 -0.66% 0.09% -0.03% 0.09% 0.23% -0.29%
1973-1 -1.46% 0.19% -0.76% 0.21% 0.59% -1.23%
1977-1 0.11% 0.11% -0.05% 0.39% 0.49% 1.06%
1981-1 -0.44% 0.29% -0.21% 0.25% 0.21% 0.09%
1985-1 0.44% 0.80% 0.38% 0.66% 0.29% 2.57%
Avg -0.40% 0.30% -0.14% 0.32% 0.36% 0.44%
 
1989-1 -0.25% -0.34% -0.16% 0.33% 0.68% 0.26%
1993-1 -0.12% -0.29% -0.29% 0.57% 0.88% 0.76%
1997-1 -0.88% 1.26% -0.43% -0.68% 0.13% -0.60%
2001-1 -1.96% 0.21% 1.93% 1.36% -1.17% 0.37%
2005-1 -0.09% 0.14% 0.05% -1.02% -0.84% -1.77%
Avg -0.66% 0.20% 0.22% 0.11% -0.06% -0.20%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2005
Avg -0.53% 0.21% 0.03% 0.13% 0.00% -0.16%
Win% 18% 73% 27% 73% 73% 55%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2008
Avg -0.10% 0.02% 0.10% -0.09% -0.12% -0.20%
Win% 40% 62% 52% 60% 51% 49%
 
SPX Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 0.50% 0.67% -0.12% 0.42% 0.08% 1.54%
1957-1 -0.78% 0.79% -0.13% 0.36% 0.23% 0.47%
1961-1 -0.92% 0.88% -0.02% -0.37% 0.40% -0.02%
1965-1 -0.34% 0.19% -0.63% -1.31% -0.60% -2.69%
 
1969-1 -0.46% 1.13% -0.32% 0.25% 0.08% 0.69%
1973-1 -1.43% 0.38% 0.43% -1.18% 0.47% -1.32%
1977-1 0.45% 0.32% -0.28% 0.16% 0.57% 1.22%
1981-1 -0.24% 1.06% -0.52% 0.11% -0.19% 0.23%
1985-1 -0.24% 0.31% 0.17% 0.62% 0.32% 1.18%
Avg -0.38% 0.64% -0.10% -0.01% 0.25% 0.40%
 
1989-1 0.17% -0.20% -0.24% 0.57% 1.76% 2.07%
1993-1 0.57% -0.06% -0.61% 0.77% 0.22% 0.89%
1997-1 -2.23% 2.02% -0.82% -0.60% 0.41% -1.23%
2001-1 -0.49% 0.34% 0.87% 1.14% -0.95% 0.92%
2005-1 -0.07% -0.20% 0.02% -1.08% -0.76% -2.10%
Avg -0.41% 0.38% -0.16% 0.16% 0.14% 0.11%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2005
Avg -0.39% 0.54% -0.16% -0.01% 0.15% 0.13%
Win% 29% 79% 29% 64% 71% 64%
 
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2008
Avg -0.16% 0.13% 0.05% -0.06% -0.15% -0.18%
Win% 39% 55% 54% 53% 43% 55%

 

Money supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth has increased sharply over the past 2 weeks. That is usually a positive for the market.

Conclusion

The market is oversold and seasonally it has done ok once it gets past the Monday following options expiration.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday June 26 than they were on Friday June 19.

Thank you,

By Mike Burk
To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html

Gordon Harms produces a Power Point for our local timing group. You can get a copy of that at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/ .

Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Mike Burk Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules