Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Ben Bernanke Beats Deflationists Into Submission With His Money Stick / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Berwick
We've got a new slogan for deflationists. Deflationists: Wrong Since the Advent of Fiat Currency.
It's been the never-ending, battle royale of the economic world ever since the looming end to this financial system became starkly clear in 2008. Will the western governments, almost all completely incapable of paying the gargantuan debts enabled by democracy, central banking and fiat currency, allow the system to collapse (deflation) or worm their way out of it via inflation, until we live in a hyperinflationary apocalypse?
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
U.S. Economic Reports Paint a Bullish Picture / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors rose 10.4% to 93.3 in October, reflecting gains in all four regions of the nation. The PHSI is a indicator of actual of sales of existing homes with a lead of 1-2 months. The year-to-year increase of the PHSI is noteworthy. However, the issue of contract cancellations is a dark cloud hanging over the housing market. In recent months, the percentage of realtors reporting contract cancellations due to appraisal problems and failure to obtain credit has risen. Therefore, the October PHSI could be an exaggeration of the likely sales of home that will take place. Nonetheless, the increase of the October PHSI is a positive development in the housing sector.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Yellen is Supportive of Additional Fed Action to Support U.S. Economic Activity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen presented a case for additional Fed action to support economic activity in the United States. These two excerpts (emphasis added) from her speech indicate her opinion about the necessity for Fed action
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, Where Would We Be Without Rules? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Adrian_Ash
"Where would be if we didn't have rules?"
"FRANCE!"
"And where would we be if we had too many rules?"
"GERMANY!"
– UK comedian Al Murray, the (very British) Pub Landlord
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
U.S. Government Spends More than it Earns, It’s All Very Taxing / Economics / Taxes
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box is something a little different for me. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management has produced a most excellent summary of the problems inherent in "all things taxing" in the US. He delves into not only the specifics but also some of the philosophy of taxation. This is a balanced piece in which he tries to present all sides and arguments, giving us a very real picture of the dilemma we face, and leaving us to draw our own conclusions. Whatever we do going forward, including nothing, the outcome with regard to taxes is going to be difficult if not painful for most of us. We talk about everyone paying their fair share, but what does that mean? The answer is that it means very different things to different people.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
With Rising Wages, Will China Remain a Manufacturing Hub? / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Earlier this month, I spent a few days at the CLSA AsiaUSA Forum in San Francisco, which offered a geopolitical and economic intellectual feast for global investors. The research firm gathered a well-rounded cast of engaging speakers that included Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain, Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young, Pollster extraordinaire Frank Luntz and renowned physicist Dr. Michio Kaku. Here's a photo I snapped during a Q&A session with former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Beginning of New Credit Crunch, Trouble Ahead for Global Economy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: LewRockwell
Economic Collapse writes: The global economy is heading for a massive amount of trouble in the months ahead. Right now we are seeing the beginning of a credit crunch that is shaping up to be very reminiscent of what we saw back in 2008. Investors and big corporations are pulling huge amounts of money out of European banks and nobody wants to lend to those banks right now. We could potentially see dozens of "Lehman Brothers moments" in Europe in 2012. Meanwhile, bond yields on sovereign debt are jumping through the roof all over Europe. That means that European nations that are already drowning in debt are going to find it much more expensive to continue funding that debt. It would be a huge understatement to say that there is "financial chaos" in Europe right now.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
China Economy Will Collapse By The End Of 2011 / Economics / China Economy
By: Submissions
WealthCycles writes: Casey Research Host: Your original estimate for the collapse of China was by 2011… do you think (that was) relatively close?
Gordon Chang: I think it is very close when you see what is going on right now. -Gordon Chang, Forbes.com
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
A Case for Free-Market Bank Regulation / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
America (BAC) has rescinded its plan to charge customers a $5 monthly debit-card fee. Shall we praise bank regulators for their swift action in preventing the exorbitant charge? Well, no. Then we'll credit politicians for legislating against greedy, big-bank profiteering, right? Wrong again. The free market drove BAC to drop the debit-card fee.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Can the Underground Economy Save Europe? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: David_Howden
As the old saying goes, the more expensive you are to fire, the more expensive you are to hire. Nowhere is this more apparent than on the European continent.
Even with the United States' lengthening of unemployment insurance benefits at the wake of this crisis, the benefits for the standard down-on-his-luck American pale in comparison to those of the average European. Upon job separation the average Frenchman can expect to see more than half of his salary extended in the form of unemployment benefits. Many European workers see these benefits extended for two to three years after their termination, with some countries extending benefits indefinitely.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Jim Chanos on Chinese Economy and If He Will Cover His Short Positions / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Billionaire short seller Jim Chanos, founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates Ltd., spoke to Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu this morning about China's banking system and outlook for the Chinese economy and real estate market.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
The Coming Global Financial Collapse Quotes That Will Make Your Hair Stand Up / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Economic Collapse writes: Is the world on the verge of another massive global financial collapse? Yes. The western world is drowning in an ocean of debt unlike anything the world has ever seen before, and our financial markets are gigantic casinos that are dependent on huge mountains of risk and leverage remaining very stable. In the end, this house of cards that has been built on a foundation of sand is going to come crashing down in a horrifying manner. Usually in this column I go on and on about why things will soon get much worse. But today I am going to take a bit of a break. Today, I am going to let some of the top financial professionals in the world tell you why things will soon get much worse. Many of the quotes that you are about to read just might make the hair on the back of your neck stand up. Most people out there have no idea what is about to happen. Most people out there are working hard and are busy preparing for the holidays and they are hopeful that the economy will turn around soon. But that is not going to happen. We are heading for another major global financial collapse, and when it happens the U.S. economy is going to get even worse.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Understand Everything Fundamentally, The entropic force is fundamental / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Shelby_H_Moore
Historic and recent scientific developments add to our understanding of how the entropic force from physics may govern everything in nature, including ecosystems and economics. This can be applied to fundamental analysis of potential political outcomes, macroeconomics, and paradigmatic epochal shifts, e.g. the current shift from the industrial to the knowledge age.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
U.S. Going into Double Dip Recession, Pimco's El-Erian Calls U.S. Economy 'Terrifying' / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
ONLY ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION: Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are "terrifying" as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Global Balance Sheet Depression Making Second More Dangerous Credit Crisis Inevitable / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
I have been reading and talking with Simon Hunt for a long time. He is a very thoughtful Brit who spends a lot of time in China and thinks about copper and commodities and cycles. He has enough seasoning to have seen a few cycles himself. This piece summarizes rather well the view that he has expressed for some time. And while I am generally skeptical of relying too much on cycles for specifics (they work until they don't), I think Simon has some very powerful conclusions. From his summary:
"The world is in a balance sheet depression which will make a second and perhaps more dangerous credit crisis almost inevitable. That should break out next year or in 2013.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Europe Is in for a Long Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Collectively, the 27 sovereign nations that make up the European Union (EU) most likely entered a recession this quarter. Chart 1 shows that EU industrial production contracted at an annualized rate of 15.5% in September vs. August, a near certain sign of a recession. Given that the EU represents the largest economy in the world, a recession there is no small beer for the rest of the world.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Is America's Second Deflationary Economic Depression Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".
Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
Is Economic Optimism Warranted Or Not? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
"Things are not always what they seem; the first appearance deceives many; the intelligence of a few perceives what has been carefully hidden" - Author unknown
Recent economic data has surprised to the upside and once again hope springs eternal. Like a school of bait fish many economists and market pundits seem to be reversing course scrambling to highlight the positives in the economy while ignoring the structural problems that still exist.
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Friday, November 18, 2011
Darkest Days" for the U.S. Economy Behind Us, or Just Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Many people still talk about a "recovery," or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place? It can't "double-dip" when it never truly recovered:
Friday, November 18, 2011
Slowing Germany and Rising PIIGS Yield Make Perfect Economic Crisis Storm / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Capital3X
Germany registered an impressive quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5% in the third quarter. However, the recent drop in the leading indicators suggests that the German economy will not expand much in Q4, if at all; it might even contract. The uncertainties triggered by the sovereign debt crisis are increasingly dampening activity. The growth rate for the second quarter was revised upwards, from 0.1% to 0.3%. This suggests that the German economy might expand by 3.0% in 2011 as a whole which is impressive but well baked into the price.