Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
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Sunday, December 18, 2011
Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: LEAP
As announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Understanding Unemployment, Keynesian vs. Marxist Explanations / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Ismael Hossein-zadeh writes: “A study of the struggle waged by the English working class reveals that, in order to oppose their workers, the employers either bring in workers from abroad or else transfer manufacture to countries where there is a cheap labor force. Given this state of affairs, if the working class wishes to continue its struggle with some chance of success, the national organisations must become international.” (Karl Marx)
Saturday, December 17, 2011
U.S. Inflation, A Hurdle for the Next Round of Quantitative Easing? / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in November after a 0.1% drop in October. The 1.6% drop in the energy price index and the muted 0.1% increase in food prices helped to hold down the overall gain of the CPI in November. Gasoline prices continue to decline and offset higher prices of heating oil. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in November following gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Higher prices for apparel (+0.6%) and medical care (+0.4%) show the relatively large gains in November. Shelter costs advanced 0.2% in November, matching the increase seen in October.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
China Economy May Drag World Down / Economics / China Economy
By: Barry_Elias
My column of June 24, 2011 ("China Yield Inversion May Portend Economic Slowdown") opened with the following sentence:
“The yield on Chinese bonds are inverting at an accelerating rate. This does not portend well for the Chinese economy, and this may have negative implications globally.”
China’s contribution to global economic growth this year is nearly 40%.
Friday, December 16, 2011
How an Economy Collapses… and How to Protect Yourself, Part 2 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
To recap the main point from Part one of this two-part essay series, I mentioned that the internal collapse of an economy occurs when it is overburdened by too much consumption (such as debt) and that the primary engine of this over-consumption is typically a government that has grown too big to sustain. The United States is definitely trending in that direction. I used my former country, Yugoslavia, as an example of what may occur.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Global Economic Overview December 2011 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
Morgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
In June, the IMF forecast 2.5% and 2.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This latest revision comes closer to the organization’s 2% benchmark for a global recession.
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Friday, December 16, 2011
Jobless Claims of the U.S. economy Post a Notable Improvement / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims of the U.S. economy fell 19,000 to 366,000 during the week ended December 10, after a similar decline in the prior week. If this trend were to continue, the labor market picture could be different by the next FOMC meeting in January 2012.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Asia Diverging Economic Outlooks Going Into 2012 / Economics / Asian Economies
By: James_Pressler
With most of the industrialized world focusing on all things European, we thought it might be worthwhile to see just what was happening on the other side of the Ural Mountains. Asia has not become embroiled in the debt problems sweeping through the likes of Greece and Italy, and its exposure to the euro is contained. However, what happens in Europe will inevitably drift into Asia, so a look at its major economies might provide insight into what awaits the region in 2012. In particular, we are focusing on the two most populous countries in the world – China and India.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Changing Views on Growth and Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
What’s new?
When we signed off last week, the Germans and the French were trying to hold Europe together. This morning, they are still trying.
“Don’t you live in Europe?” asked a friend at a party over the weekend.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
U.S. Household Debt - Deleveraging Posts New Record / Economics / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household debt soared prior to the onset of the financial crisis to establish a peak at $13.9 trillion in second quarter of 2008 (see Chart 2). During the thirteen quarters since the peak, household debt has declined $688 billion (see Chart 3) to set a new record for the post-war period.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2011
The Other Side of the Austerity Program - German Economy Stands to Lose / Economics / Germany
By: Asha_Bangalore
A fiscal austerity program has been adopted as the cure all for the ills of the indebted members of the eurozone. The flipside of this policy is that in the short-run Germany’s exports of goods and services will take a deep hit. Exports of goods and services from Germany reached a record high of 51% in the third quarter of 2011 (see Chart 1).
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Monday, December 12, 2011
ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations / Economics / Recession 2012
By: EconMatters
The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.
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Saturday, December 10, 2011
Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 09, 2011
How an Economy Collapses... and How to Protect Yourself / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
There are growing fears that an economic collapse is on the way. Is this fear justified? Before we conclude that it is a by-gone conclusion and that it's time to head for the hills, let's first cover how and why an economy collapses. In this essay I talk about economic collapse as an "internal event". Keep in mind that there are "external" reasons for an economy to collapse (such as war and/or natural events such as earthquakes etc.)
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Eurozone Debt Downgrade Shock Waves Could Slam Into US Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Dan_Amerman
Standard & Poor's missed the point when they "only" put 15 Eurozone nations on credit watch for possible near term downgrades. In this highly interconnected world - most of Europe can't be put on credit watch without putting much of the world on credit watch, with the United States being particularly vulnerable to global "contagion" risks.
Twelve possible implications for the United States are concisely explored herein. These "shock waves" include everything from the value of the dollar, to unemployment, gas prices, stock prices, derivatives, US bank stability, inflation, retirement investing, Federal Reserve reactions, the US deficit and credit rating, the potential criminal prosecution of S&P, and more.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Brazil, India, China and Eurozone Economic Headwinds to Heed in 2012 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There has been a string of positive news about the U.S. economy in the past few days – auto sales rose, jobless rate fell, the ISM manufacturing survey points to an increase in new orders and production, private sector construction outlays advanced. But, news from abroad is disappointing and could translate into more than a temporary dip in exports. The important question is if the tailwinds can offset the headwinds blowing through the United States.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
What the Christmas Price Index is Telling U.S. Consumers About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
U.S. consumers can get a glimpse of what to expect in price changes this holiday shopping season - especially if you get your gift ideas from an old song.
The PNC Christmas Price Index, released by PNC Wealth Management (NYSE: PNC) measures the total cost of presents listed in the classic tune, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." This year, the price tag for an ambitious gift-giver buying all 364 presents hit $101,119.84, a 4.4% gain over last year's index.
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