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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Escaping the Sovereign Debt Trap, The Commonwealth Bank of Australia Remarkable Model / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Ellen_Brown

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe current credit crisis is basically a capital crisis: at a time when banks are already short of the capital needed to back their loans, capital requirements are being raised.   Nearly a century ago, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia demonstrated that banks do not actually need capital to make loans – so long as their credit is backed by the government.  Denison Miller, the Bank’s first Governor, was fond of saying that the Bank did not need capital because “it is backed by the entire wealth and credit of the whole of Australia.”  With nothing but this national credit power, the Commonwealth Bank funded both massive infrastructure projects and the country’s participation in World War I. 

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Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Linguistic Nonsense and Liberal Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Kozy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLiberal economics has long been recognized by a host of writers, some of whom are economists themselves, as a religious-like dogma. Like Tertullian who believed "because it is absurd," economists accept the dogma not because it makes sense, but because it doesn't.

Whoa, you say, show me the evidence, and I will.

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Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2010

The Avoidable Economic Depression II / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economy has gone from bad to worse. Last Friday's report from the Commerce Department confirmed that GDP had slipped from 3.7% to 2.4% in one quarter. Now that depleted stockpiles have been rebuilt and fiscal stimulus is running out, activity will continue to sputter increasing the likelihood of a double dip recession. Consumer credit and spending continue to decline and data released on Tuesday show that a sharp increase in personal savings rate which climbed to 6.4%. Mushrooming savings indicate that household deleveraging is ongoing which will reduce spending and further exacerbate the second-half slowdown. The jobs situation is equally grim; 8 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, but policymakers on Capital Hill and at the Fed refuse to initiate government programs or provide funding that will put the country back to work. Long-term "structural" unemployment is here to stay.

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Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2010

U.S. Employment Data ADP vs. BLS Job Reports, Who to Believe? / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe ADP July National Employment report is out. Let's take a look.

Private sector employment increased by 42,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Obama Save the U.S. Economy by Paying Down the National Debt / Economics / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear Mr. President,

The following is a plan that I believe would bring about a significant change not only in the US economy, but in the US mindset. The last 30+ years in this country have been dominated by an overall regression in moral character and beliefs.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

The Myth of the Manufacturing-Led Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThey still don’t get it – or perhaps they do and just won’t admit it. Either way, it doesn’t matter much as the jesters, namely Msrs. Bernanke and Greenspan, continue to chirp their assigned lines, playing good cop/bad cop with the USEconomy. Right now, Bernanke is the good cop, pointing to increasing wages and the likelihood that the consumer will once again step up and rescue us from the grips of the double dip. On the other side of the room is Greenspan, talking about how that double-dip is still possible, although extremely unlikely.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

GDP Report Adds to My Bearish U.S. Economic Forecast / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Commerce Department confirmed what I’ve been saying for weeks: The economy is in shambles, there is no growth momentum and the next bear market leg is about to strike!

Last Friday the Commerce Department reported that our GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. That’s down from 3.7 percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Baby Boomer Dynamics, Housing, Jobs Creation, and the Falling Participation Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJob estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.

Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Economic Recovery for the Few / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRick Wolff writes: Where is this elusive recovery?  The banks, some say, have "recovered."  Yet they remain dependent on Washington, they do not make the loans needed for a general recovery, and many medium and small banks keep collapsing.  The stock market shows no recovery.  The Dow index was 14,000 in late 2007 when capitalism hit the fan, and it is around 10,000 now.  The Nasdaq market index was 2800 then and is 2300 now.  Everywhere else -- unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, depressed housing market, and so on -- no recovery in sight.  Yet, my search finally found genuine recovery for one group, and its recovery offers a better policy to treat this crisis.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

U.S. Corporate Hiring No Longer Improving; Americans Less Optimistic / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCorporate hiring has been in a weak but generally improving condition from January through June according to a Gallup Poll. That positive trend is now broken as noted in U.S. Job Creation Remains Level in July

Gallup's Job Creation Index finds job growth essentially unchanged for the third consecutive month, with a score of +7 in July -- about on par with +8 in June and +7 in May. Job market conditions are better now than they were during the financial crisis at this time a year ago (-2), but remain far below the already-recessionary levels found at this point in 2008 (+20).

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Is Consumer Spending 70% of GDP? Checkmark Recovery Revisited / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are digging into the BEA report Personal Income and Outlays, June 2010

Personal Income

Personal income increased $3.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $5.1 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $2.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent.
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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

The Next Six Big Emerging Markets? / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen countries get grouped together for economic or political purposes, an acronym or other shorthand device is soon to follow. OPEC, EU and G7 are a few of the old standards, while G20, PIIGS (European nations with dangerously large sovereign debt burdens), and of course BRICs are newer examples.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most / Economics / Deflation

By: Janet_Tavakoli

The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy. Current stock market exuberance reflects earnings increases at selective companies that benefited from sputtering stimulus programs. In late 2007 through the fall of 2008, our economy had an appendix attack, and Congress issued potent addictive painkillers instead of fixing our problems.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

ECRI Stock-Market Prophet Calling for a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Barnes writes: The Economic Cycle Research Institute - referred to as the "ECRI" by anyone in the know on Wall Street - has correctly called every U.S. recession during the last 45 years.

To work its magic, theECRI charts the weekly changes in an index ofLeading Economic Indicators (WLI). Market professionals like myself very quietly use the same group of indicators to call market tops and bottoms. The indicators are so accurate in terms of what they have to say about the future that I refer to ECRI and the WLI as "The Prophet."

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets, Will it be Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George.

Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. And when you look at today’s ISM number, look past the headline number, which is just fine, and look at the weakness in the leading indicators. New orders declined by 5 points to 53.5, its lowest level since June 2009. Also, imports slowed noticeably, which is a bad omen for domestic demand. Overall, the ISM index suggests that real GDP and factory output slowed early this quarter.

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