Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 05, 2013
Why America Will Be the Next Japan / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The media is harping on about how the U.S. is well on its way to recovery. Well, I don’t agree—the country’s economy is slowing. In the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) growth based on the second estimate expanded at 0.1%; this is above the -0.1% reading in the first estimate, but nonetheless, it’s below consensus, which estimated the economy would grow 0.5%. I’m not sure how the 0.5% growth was arrived at, but the concerns of the fiscal cliff in the fourth quarter clearly made consumers think twice about spending. Of course, the government also saw its spending curtailed due to the debt limit and pending sequester.
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Sunday, March 03, 2013
Euro Zone New Record Unemployment, U.S. Personal Income Plummets / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Barry_Grey
Economic statistics released this week reflect a further weakening of the world economy and a further fall in the living standards of the international working class.
Reports on unemployment, manufacturing activity, economic growth and personal income in Europe, China and the United States point to an overall slowdown in economic growth and a rise in unemployment and poverty. They coincide with new moves by the European Union and the Obama administration in the US to slash social spending and public-sector jobs and wages. These measures mark an escalation of the class-war policies that have fueled the economic slump and already brought untold suffering to hundreds of millions of workers.
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Saturday, March 02, 2013
Is the West About to Accelerate Away From the Rest? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Many academics such as Niall Ferguson have been publishing books and broadcasting TV series promoting the rise of China and the threat it poses to a decaying West whereas in my opinion far from the west being in decline it has yet to even peak. That coupled with the probability that China rather than presenting a threat to the west, is likely approaching significant hurdles to future growth as evidenced by the fact that academics such as Niall Ferguson are making TV programmes for mass media audiences, much as the tek stocks were becoming all the rage in the mainstream media just before they went bust.
Friday, March 01, 2013
Deflation is Far From Over - Key Economic Index Turns South / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The federal government defines the Producer Price Index (PPI) as "the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output."
With help from the Federal Reserve's massive inflationary policies, the PPI has climbed even as the economy began to fall in 2008-09.
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Thursday, February 28, 2013
Degrowth, Limits To Economic Growth And The Real World / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
40 YEARS OF DEGROWTH
More than 40 years ago, in 1972, the MIT researcher Dennis Meadows and his team published "Limits to Growth", a report paid for by the Club of Rome. The study created a massive wave of interest, in part due to "environmentalism" only having just begun as a major theme, at that time, marked by the first UN conference on the environment, in Stockholm, the same year.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Is Inflation the Legacy of the Federal Reserve? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In testimony to Congress on February 27, Bernanke bragged that inflation under his and Greenspan's watch was a mere 2% a year.
Of course Bernanke ignored a housing boom and bust. He also ignored a a dotcom boon and bust, a global financial crisis, numerous bank bailouts, and a policy of "too big to fail" that is now "even bigger".
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Wednesday, February 27, 2013
This Is a Recipe for Massive Hyperinflation Bankruptcy / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Money_Morning
Nobody was really shocked when Venezuela devalued the bolivar earlier this month from 4.3 to the dollar to 6.3.
When it comes to the currency wars, massive devaluations are simply one of the keys to this "race to the bottom" strategy.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Ignore the Keynesian Axis of Evil / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
Your points in the November 29 column on Paul Krugman and the Austrians makes good points, and I would like to make a few comments of my own.
I do believe that when one makes apocalyptic comments, one gets what he deserves if the predictions don't pan out. As you said, that does not mean the Austrians are wrong regarding money and inflation, but expansions of money, especially in the way that the Fed has gone about doing so, are going to have a number of effects, rising consumer prices being only one of them.
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Monday, February 25, 2013
New Economic Data Reveals More Bad News for the Eurozone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest detriments to global economic growth has been the weak eurozone region. Not only has economic growth been dismal within the eurozone area, but the level of financial instability over the past few years has left investors and businesses uncertain about the future.
While there was some indication that economic growth might have been rebounding within the eurozone, new data point to a much weaker underlying economy than previously thought.
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Sunday, February 24, 2013
The Keynesian Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Funds, regales us with the not-always-happy history of Keynesian economics – we did what he said when we had to, but not always when we should have. Shoving fiscal and monetary stimulus down the throat of a recession is well and good, but how about the part where we’re supposed to be fiscally conservative during boom times? “What, raise taxes? No thank you!”
The upshot, as Minerd reminds us, is that “As a result of the constant fiscal support without the tax increases, businesses and households became comfortable operating with continuously higher leverage ratios. The conventional wisdom was that this government backstop could never be exhausted.” Today we are testing that premise to the limit, and not only in the US.
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Saturday, February 23, 2013
How Long Can U.S. Economy’s Sweet Spot Last This Time? / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Until recently, the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and meltdown has been in stealth mode all the way, much of the country either unaware of the progress - or in denial that it was happening.That’s even been true of investors, whose success depends so much on being able to separate the facts and reality from the static and noise.
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Friday, February 22, 2013
Currency Wars - China Robbing Joe To Pay Chan / Economics / Currency War
By: Richard_Mills
Lately there’s been a lot of talk regarding currency wars. Let’s take a look at why competitive currency devaluations – currency wars – won’t accomplish what’s intended and why we’re going to have to see increasing U.S. protectionism (subsidies, tariffs etc.) regarding global trade.
Currency War - when countries around the world start competing (competitive devaluation) to make their currency cheaper than everyone else’s as a way to boost trade.
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Friday, February 22, 2013
Illusion of Euro-zone Stability as France Sinks Further Into the Economic Gutter / Economics / France
By: Mike_Shedlock
While laughing at the amusing exchange of letters between the CEO of Titan and Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Industrial Renewal of France, I awaited the latest PMI report on France, expecting findings to be horrific.
The PMI reports are out today, and inquiring minds will note the Markit Flash France PMI shows the decline in French private sector output accelerates further to reach near four-year record.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Is Japan's Economy Heading for an Endgame? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to boost the Japanese economy by unlimited stimulus and increased government intervention in the financial market. The Japanese economy has been bogged down by lucklustre economic growth which can be shown by the following GDP Growth chart from 1993-2013.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Zombinomics - Paul Krugman and Zombie Financial History / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
Murray Rothbard liked to say that economists often tended to specialize in the area where their knowledge was the worst, and given Paul Krugman's butchery of the historical record, I'd say Rothbard had a good point. Regular readers of Krugman's columns and blog posts and other public statements would believe, for example, that World War II ended the Great Depression, that Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy (who were major forces in deregulation during the 1970s) were conservative Republicans, and that the only thing better than war to bring prosperity would be the nationwide preparation to fight an invasion of imaginary space aliens.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Deflation Arrives In The Eurozone / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Dave Fairtex: I've recently been exploring the statistical data warehouse provided by the ECB, and I was able to assemble the following chart, comprising MFI Loans (MFI = monetary financial institution) + Bonds (sovereign & corporate). It was good timing, because it shows that for the first time during this whole crisis, the eurozone has dropped into deflation.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Usury, Greed, Disorganized Capital and The Playtime Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Andrew_McKillop
USURY
The French law No 737 of July 2010 relating to and defining usury for consumer credit loans, and applied by the Bank of France on credit supplying establishments, defines the rate at which loans of less than 1524 euros become "usurious" and illegal at 20.30%. For loans of more than 1524 euros, usury starts at 19.89% annual, for loans from 1 January 2013. The less you borrow, the more you pay in interest - this is economics in motion, for example the notion that it is"logical" that borrowing less produces more risk for the lender! The European Central Bank, which at any time can lend to the Bank of France, for loans from July 2012, from its highest rate Marginal Lending Facility, presently charges 1.50% per year for these "higher risk" loans, which BoF can then distribute or on-lend to private banks at "advantageous rates". Obviously an interesting business.
Friday, February 15, 2013
From Shipping To Shopping: Rationing To Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
MODELS AND PRECEDENTS
When World War II started in September 1939 the UK's first rationed commodity was unsurprisingly petroleum. By January 1940 food was added to the list: bacon, butter and sugar were firstly rationed, followed by meat, tea, coffee, jam, biscuits, breakfast cereals, cheese, eggs, lard, milk, canned fruits and dried fruits. This, also unsurprisingly, produced a black market within the first 12 months.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
The Deflationary Spiral Bogey / Economics / Deflation
By: Robert_Blumen
What is deflation? According to dictionary.com, it is “a fall in the general price level or a contraction of credit and available money.”
Falling prices. That sounds good, especially if you have set some cash set aside and are thinking about a major purchase.
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Thursday, February 14, 2013
Why Inflation in 2013 Is Imminent / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Jeff Uscher writes: Is a spike in the monetary base - currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed - the first sign of imminent inflation?
Art Cashin, the well-respected director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS, recently told King World News the increase in the monetary base may well be a sign of impending inflation.
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