Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, March 19, 2021
What the "Sudden, Dramatic" Surge in Googling "Inflation" Tells You / Economics / Deflation
It likely "typifies the end of an old economic trend and the beginning of a new one"
In the news, you hear that the big monetary fear these days is the prospect for a jump in inflation.
Here are some headlines since the start of the year:
- Inflation Is Coming. That Might Even Be a Problem. (Bloomberg, Jan. 13)
- Inflation concerns put Biden, Fed on defensive (TheHill.com, Feb. 23)
- Stocks tumble as Powell signals inflation is ahead (CNN Business, March 5)
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
We Need Infrastructure Spending to Avoid Another Texas-Sized Mess / Economics / Infrastructure
I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.
He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get—coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations—adds up to a new bull market.
This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 14, 2021
Keys to US / Global Economic Recovery - Part 2 / Economics / Economic Stimulus
This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/....
In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors. The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function. We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before… and that changes certain things.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 11, 2021
Biden Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities. The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises. The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”. We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.
Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP. It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand equilibrium functioning properly. The participation of the consumer within an economy is essential for a healthy growing economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 09, 2021
Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development / Economics / China Economy
At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.
China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 08, 2021
US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 / Economics / US Economy
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 07, 2021
The Case for Inflation / Economics / Inflation
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently pointed out that overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.
What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 06, 2021
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM / Economics / Coronavirus 2021
Starting Monday Britains final Coronavirus lockdown will start to come to an end, first with the opening of all of Britains schools and soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 04, 2021
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 / Economics / Inflation
So the US looks set to approve stimulus spending of $1,9 trillion for the US economy during 2021, with economists singing it's praises of how basically you get a free lunch, one of huge deficit spending at zero interest rate and no inflation. Understand $1.9 trillion is 10% of the US Economy! This for an economy that has already recovered from the covid depression and was destined to grow by about 3% in 2021. So what happens when one throws 10% of GDP at an economy that is growing by 3% per annum. No you don't get GDP growth of 13% per annum, yes it will boost US GDP for 2021 but not by 10%, perhaps by another 3%, so where does the other 7% or $1.5 trillion go? Into HIGHER PRICES, INFLATION! Some of which may be reflected in the official inflation indices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
A fundamental tenet regarding money and inflation is that ongoing money creation by governments and central banks (Federal Reserve) cheapens the value of all money (US dollars) in circulation and leads to a loss of purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power shows up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.
As long as the amount of money that is created is somewhat moderate and regular, then the effects are presumed to be moderate, as well. Hence, we experience increases in the cost of living on an ongoing basis, but in incremental amounts of maybe two or three percent each year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
The Case Against Inflation / Economics / Inflation
For inflation to be a near-term threat, five things would have to happen this year:
- Vaccines and other measures bring the pandemic under control this summer in the US and other developed countries.
- Consumers use relief dollars, savings, and/or borrowing to quickly increase their spending on discretionary goods and services.
- This spending is large enough to exceed post-pandemic production capacity and spark price increases.
- The Federal Reserve lets the economy “run hot” and maintains its low interest rates and asset purchases.
- Congress and the Biden administration leave the fiscal spigots open by not raising taxes or cutting spending.
All these are possible. Are they likely?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 22, 2021
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard / Economics / Coronavirus 2021
When a house burns down, it affects more than just the owner, occupants, and even the neighbors.
Quick, efficient firefighting is a public good. Stopping contagious diseases is another public good. The public interest demands all fires—in all forms—be extinguished before they spread.
Now we have COVID-19 vaccines that, while imperfect, are generally safe and effective. We should deliver them with the same urgency with which we send fire trucks to every blaze.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 13, 2021
US-China Reset Key to Brighter Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Global Economy
After four years of US-Sino tensions, the Biden administration could speed up US recovery, while restoring bilateral trust with China. That would foster global economic prospects. The reverse would undermine those prospects.
In the United States, the third wave of the COVID-19 peaked with 250,000 confirmed cases daily after the holiday period. Following the catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic by the Trump administration, total cases are approaching 27 million and the 440,000 deaths exceed US military fatalities in World War II.
After effective containment, confirmed cases in China remain below 90,000. With the Spring Festival holidays just days away, recent resurgences have renewed concerns about outbreaks and people have been urged to avoid travels during holidays. Despite some unease, public-health authorities believe a major outbreak is unlikely.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 12, 2021
Bubblicious Asset Prices, Debt Dependency, Economic Collapse / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
The words bubbly and delicious might be more descriptively accurate when talking about champagne. However, it is not too difficult to imagine giddy salivation among the owners of Bitcoin, or Tesla stock.
And, while some might be more stringent in their terms of definition and applicability, investors in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. – pretty much anything with a $ sign in front of it – might want to rethink the current state of affairs as it pertains to valuation of their financial assets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 12, 2021
UK Real Inflation is 15% to 20% - Grocery Price Rises Due to Rampant Money Printing / Economics / Inflation
The Government and Bank of England would have you believe that Inflation is not a problem as they continue to focus the masses on their fake conjured out of thin air inflation indices such as CPI at just 1.4%, so as to allow the theft of real purchasing power to continue unabated as the government goes on an annual £400 billion spending spree, racking up debt that the Bank of England is busy monetization though QE, all so as to suppress real interest rates giving the illusion that the consumers are getting a free lunch, i.e. rampant government money printing deficit spending all without any inflationary consequences that the morons in the mainstream financial press are more than happy to regurgitate. However REAL inflation, that which people experience when they do their weekly shops is far higher than the fake 1.4%, REAL Inflation is at LEAST 15% and more like 20% as that is what happens when the Government starts paying 1/3rd of the workforce to stay at home, as has been the case for most of 2020 and continuing into 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 11, 2021
The Gripping Hand Holds Inflation / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
The question people ask me most often is when the US will see inflation.
Not to be a two-handed economist ("on the one/other hand"), but it's really the third hand—the gripping hand, which has the least dexterity and the most strength—that holds the answer.
The thing is, you cannot predict inflation or deflation until you know what happens with COVID-19 this summer.
The good news is that US vaccinations are accelerating. States and the federal government are working out bugs in the process. Supply constraints are easing a bit. It is still going much too slowly, but was always going to be an ordeal. The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be approved soon and will help give everyone a chance to be vaccinated by this summer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 28, 2021
Captain Biden now Piloting MMT Adventure / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
Gold may have come off the boil after rising above $1,900 an ounce in the aftermath of the US election, but the precious metal, and its sister silver, will do very well under a Biden presidency, an Ahead of the Herd analysis has found.
The main factors are drastically increased government spending, leading to even more unsustainable US debt levels than currently, along with rising inflation; dovish monetary policy as the Federal Reserve continues to advocate near 0% interest rates; and a sinking US dollar. Gold prices and the USD generally move in opposite directions.
Covid spending ‘out the wazoo’
Within the current structural bull market for gold, the antecedents of the next phase are in the spending promises of President-elect Joe Biden.
Biden, despite claiming otherwise, believes strongly in the power of the state to tax and spend, and will face overwhelming pressure from the left wing of the Democratic Party – supporters of hard-left progressives like Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders – to toe the party line. A long wish list waits to be filled, with little to no concern regarding the already out of control $28 billion national debt, courtesy of Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 28, 2021
China's Accelerated Economic Recovery Key to Global Growth / Economics / China Economy
Unlike other major economies, China has rebounded and its recovery is accelerating. It could fuel a third of global economic growth in 2021.
With the Spring Festival holidays just weeks away, recent resurgences of COVID-19 infections in Jilin province and Shijiazhuang, Hebei province have renewed concerns about sporadic outbreaks.
China’s public-health authorities believe a major outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the Chinese mainland is unlikely. The authorities have taken strong containment measures to rapidly identify, isolate and control potential outbreaks.
Nonetheless, despite the holidays, Chinese people have been urged to avoid travels, to keep the infection rate under control. Downside risks permit no complacency in the foreseeable future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 26, 2021
4 Economic Challenges for 2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
This year will bring several economic challenges in the U.S.—some we may not yet foresee. But I can already identify at least four.
First, the coronavirus pandemic is permanently changing certain parts of the economy.
I’ll start with the one most familiar to me: business travel. It came to a screeching halt last spring. Airlines, hotels, and so on since recovered a little but are nowhere near normal, nor are most profitable. They’re just holding on.
Read full article... Read full article...