Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
On Tuesday zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses sunk into territory that one metal analyst believes could signal a major price kick for the base metal, used mostly for galvanizing steel to prevent corrosion.
The one-year chart below shows LME inventories falling steadily, touching the 108,425-tonne mark as of Feb. 11 - a 52-week low. It’s a long way from the annual high of 256,175 tonnes reached in August.
Cormark Securities mining analyst Stefan Ioannou said last fall that if zinc supply drops 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes a day it would be a very bullish price signal, especially if inventories go as low as 100,000 tonnes. The one-week chart shows zinc inventories dropping from 112,750 tonnes on Feb. 5 to 108,500t on Feb 11 - a fall of 4,250 tonnes, and within only 8,000 tonnes of Ioannou’s100,000t target zone.
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Friday, February 15, 2019
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so. These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts. But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides. They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.
For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX). These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope. While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s. As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.
The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is the world’s leading and dominant gold-stock investment vehicle. In Q3 alone NEM and ABX mined a staggering 1286k and 1149k ounces of gold! To put this in perspective, the average of the next 8 largest gold miners rounding out the top 10 was just 508k ounces. Newmont and Barrick have long been in a league of their own, with commensurate market capitalizations.
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Friday, February 15, 2019
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you even wanted to travel in time? You can, at least when reading about the gold market. Many analysts claim that this year is like 2016 for the gold market. We invite you to read our today’s article about the similarities and differences between the precious metals market then and today and find out what do they imply for the gold prices.
Finally, the scientists have invented the time machine! This is at least what we hear from many people: that we went back in time to 2016. Indeed, there are certain similarities between the precious metals market then and today. What are they – and what do they imply for the gold prices?
Let’s look at the chart below, which shows the price of the yellow metal since December 2015. As one can see, gold has rallied since December 2018, just like three years earlier.
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Friday, February 15, 2019
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Umer_Mahmood
The majority of gold traders are very bearish on the gold market currently. The sentiment could signal a start of a possible jump in price for the precious metal.If you are also expecting such a price shift, you might want to consider buying the SPDR Gold Shares ( a fund holding bullion bars).
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along. Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground. One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.” In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension” which he says is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.” With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday, the USD Index moved substantially lower while precious metals barely yawned. Why is gold not rallying? What does the gold-USD link tell us now, in combination with latest developments throughout the PMs sector? Let’s examine these and many more clues together.
Almost nothing happened yesterday in gold and silver, while miners moved a bit lower. The latter is a bearish indication, but not the most important one that we saw. The key issue is that what happened in the gold-USD link showed that gold was previously not showing strength with regard to the US currency. Yesterday’s action confirmed our yesterday’s thoughts on that matter. We explained the reasoning behind the lack of decline in gold in light of USD’s rally in the following way:
One reason might be that gold is simply showing strength, as it doesn’t want to move lower – it’s waiting for factors on which it could rally. But we don’t think that this the correct interpretation. There are multiple long-term bearish factors that remain in place and thus it seems that there might be a different interpretation. And there is. Actually, there are two reasons due to which this might be the case.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.
Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.
However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Market in 2019: WGC versus LBMA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Both the WGC and LBMA published outlooks for the global economy and gold market in 2019. Who is right?
WGC’s Outlook for Gold in 2019
Let’s start from the World Gold Council (WGC) which published its 2019 outlook on January 10th. As befits the organization representing industry’s interests, the WGC is bullish on gold prices. No surprises here. According to the institution, the following trends will mainly shape the gold market in 2019: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, and structural economic reforms.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.
Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320. Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks. We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Larry Parks of the Foundation of the Advancement of Monetary Education joins me for an eye-opening discussion on our nation’s growing monetary problems and what you can do to help in the vital cause of bringing gold back into the nation’s consciousness. Larry also talks about the massive dangers our nation’s pension funds are facing. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Larry Parks, one of the foremost experts on sound money, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are pulling back a bit this week on the heels of U.S. dollar strength.
The dollar is benefiting from weakness in European currencies. Brexit uncertainties and downbeat economic forecasts for the European Union are weighing on the euro.
The corresponding dollar rally helped pull gold prices back down near the $1,300 support level in early trading Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold trades at $1,314 an ounce – down a slight 0.3% for the week. Silver checks in at $15.79 to post a weekly decline of 0.9%. Platinum prices are off 3.5% to come in at an even $800. And finally, palladium is showing impressive relative strength, yet again – up 2.6% this week to bring spot prices to $1,396 per ounce.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Gold Stocks Gather Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs. These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector. That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits. Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher. All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.
Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors. They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow. That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized. Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.
The most-popular gold-stock benchmark these days is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It was launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead. This week GDX’s net assets of $10.5b were a colossal 52.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX is the lens through which most traders now view gold-stock fortunes.
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Are gold bulls naively optimistic? They are certainly optimistic; at least as regards their expectation for higher gold prices. But is that all that is needed to make them happy?
If gold marches higher from here, does that signify that all is well? Would the gurus and wanna-be millionaires be proven correct if gold were priced at $10,000.00 per ounce?
We could ask when. But if those who expect big things for gold are correct, then when might not matter.
Let’s say you want to buy a stock – any stock – that is priced at 13. You have done your due diligence and you are convinced that it can go to 100.
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.
So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.
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Friday, February 08, 2019
20 Year of Eurozone and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The old continent is dying. The euro is on the brink of collapse. This is what you can often hear in the press. But is that really the case? We invite you to read our today’s article about the development of the Eurozone in the last twenty years and find out what are the real prospect of the euro – and what does it imply for the gold market.
In December, we celebrated 40 years of market reforms in China. In January, there was another important anniversary: 20 years of the euro area. So, let’s move from East Asia to Europe, analyzing the economic situation of the Eurozone and its implications for gold.
After years of negotiations and preparations, the euro was launched on January 1st, 1999. Initially, the shared currency was only virtual, and the national currencies were still legal tenders used in circulation. For ordinary citizens little changed. However, the exchange rates between national currencies were locked at fixed rates against each other, while the European Central Bank took control over their monetary policy. The euro notes and coins entered the circulation three years later.
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Friday, February 08, 2019
Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This article was originally published on Sun Feb 3 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Extremes are the hallmark of the metals market. And those that handle the extremes best are usually the ones who do best in the metals market.
Consider the extremes we experienced in August and September of 2011. Gold had days where it would rally $50 in a single day during its final parabolic move. Moreover, everyone you spoke with would express their certainty that gold would soon eclipse the $2,000 mark, on its way to much higher levels.
Yet, I remained steadfast in my analysis which suggested the $1,915 region would provide us with a top. While the market continued $6 higher than my expectation, I think we all recognize what occurred at that time.
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Thursday, February 07, 2019
The Battle for Venezuela’s Gold Serves as a Lesson in Counterparty Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
He who controls the gold makes the rules. That old adage applies aptly to the present crisis in Venezuela.
An international battle for control of Venezuela’s gold is currently underway. At stake is the country’s political future – and with it, the global market for its immense oil reserves.
In a desperate effort to cling to power, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro has been depleting his country’s gold reserves.
The oil-rich nation once had gold reserves of over 160 tons. But in recent months, Venezuela has sold off dozens of tons of gold to allies such as Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Russia in exchange for euros and other globally recognized currencies.
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Thursday, February 07, 2019
What Alchemists Think about the Impact of Changes in Automotive Industry on Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OenB) and Gold
In the previous edition of the Gold News Monitor, we have already analyzed one article from the newest Alchemist about the gold outlook for 2019. Today, we would like to return to the publication and examine the remaining ones, which are no less interesting.
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Thursday, February 07, 2019
Gold Price Breaks Lower – What Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd. research team has been on top of nearly every move in the metals markets over the past 12+ months. On February 1, we posted this article: Get Ready For The Next Big Upside Leg In Metals/Miners. In this post, we suggested that the recent peak in Gold, near $1330, would likely end and prompt a downside price rotation over the next 45+ days.
Subsequently, on January 28, we posted this article: 45 Days Until A Multi-Year Breakout For Precious Metals. In that post, we highlighted our predictive modeling systems support of a sideways price correction in the precious metals markets that would align with US stock market strength and US Dollar strength.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2019
The New Cold War and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
In December President Trump pounded out a tweet that raised a lot of eyebrows in the Twitterverse. It had to do with America’s defense spending, perceived by Trump to be much too high. He wrote:
Didn’t Trump campaign on a stronger military, to crack down on ISIS? To make America safer again? He did, and so the head-scratching began. It was especially odd considering that Trump signed off on a HUGE increase in defense spending in August. The 2019 National Defense Spending Authorization Act has a budget of $717 billion that will raise America’s troop levels to the highest in a decade. The NDSAA allocated $616.9 billion for the Pentagon, $69 billion for overseas operations and $21.9 billion for nuclear weapons programs.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Crude Oil – The Ground Is Starting to Shake / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday we witnessed a good attempt to move to the downside. The sellers were partially rebutted. How did the big picture stand the test of yesterday and what are we to do about it?
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