Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Spring Has Arrived. Will Gold also Bloom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recent positive news suggest the US economy spring revival. But what about gold? Will it blossom? Will the gold love trade take reins from gold as a safe haven play?

Retail Sales Surge

Last week, the government has released its latest report on the retail sector. The retail sales jumped 1.6 percent in March, the best results since September 2017, as one can see in the chart below. The change was above expectations (the economists polled by MarketWatch forecasted sales to climb 1.1 percent) and it was solid (0.9 percent) even if we set gas and autos aside.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Can Saudi Arabia Still Sway The Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC's largest producer, has influenced the oil market and oil flows since the middle of the 20th century.

Shortly after the 21st century began, one of Saudi Arabia's key customers made its first steps toward becoming one of the Kingdom's main competitors on the global oil market: the United States began fracking for oil in the mid-2000s. By the end of the 2010s, the U.S. is now the world's biggest crude oil producer, having surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to claim the crown.

Sure, Saudi Arabia is one of the most important factors in global crude trade and oil market participants are lapping up every word and hint from the top oil officials in the Kingdom.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The downside potential in precious metals discussed last week is playing out as Gold and gold stocks have broken down technically.

The global economy appears to be firming and that is evidenced by a sustained rebound in global equity markets.

As a result, the potential for a rate cut which pushed precious metals higher is now unwinding. That has caused the breakdown in precious metals and there is more unwinding to go.

We have trumpeted the need (in precious metals) for a rate cut as a fundamental catalyst for the next bull market. But there is another scenario that plays well for Gold.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Silver’s Next Big Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Eight years ago this month, silver started its “next big move”.  And that move continues today. It is awesome to behold. See the chart (ten-year history of silver prices) below…

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jared_Dillian

Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.

Not really.

Certain securities have high kurtosis. That is where out-of-the ordinary returns (larger or smaller) occur more frequently than the normal distribution predicts.

Of course, nobody who is stable and balanced puts 100% of their assets into something which has the possibility of extreme returns.

But risk 90 cents for the possibility of making 10 bucks? All day long.

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019.  Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.

Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019.  You can read our updated post here.

This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019.  Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.

Monday, April 22, 2019

Cannabis Stocks: Don't Let Your Opportunity Go Up in Smoke / Commodities / Cannabis

By: EWI

In the 1973 song "The Joker," the Steve Miller Band sang:

"I'm a joker. I'm a smoker. I'm a midnight toker."

Of course, "midnight toker" referred to pot smoking. Back then, there were plenty of midnight tokers, but most of them feared getting "busted."

Thirty years later, in 2003, the Elliott Wave Theorist predicted:

"Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."

Then, in July 2009, The Socionomist (the monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute, a sister organization of Elliott Wave International) published a study titled "The Coming Collapse of Modern Prohibition," which reviewed the repeal of Prohibition during the bear market psychology of the early 1930s.

Sunday, April 21, 2019

Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the fundamentals for gold, his company's funds and a handful of companies on his radar screen. Streetwise Reports: Since the beginning of the year, gold has been trading fairly narrowly in the $1,300 range. What are some of the macro factors working behind this and how do you believe they'll affect the price moving forward?

Frank Holmes: When we look at macro factors at U.S. Global—and we write about them every month, in particular the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—we try to take this complexity and simplify it by dividing it into big chunks.

The first is commodities; 50% of all commodity demand is China, so China is very, very important. When you add the populations of China and India—"Chindia"—you get 40% of the world's population. That's a lot of food. That's a lot of clothes. That's a lot of airplanes they'll be buying for India.

Saturday, April 20, 2019

Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking.  Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely.  That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios.  But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago.  Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over.

The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”.  The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”.  The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania.  At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had only edged up 1.2% over the past 14.5 months.  That’s not parabolic.

The closest thing to a mania seen in recent years was the SPX’s 18.4% surge over just 5.3 months that led into its initial January 2018 peak.  Traders were ecstatic about Republicans’ coming major corporate tax cuts, and aggressively piled into stocks.  While euphoria accompanies manias, it is entirely different.  It is simply “a strong feeling of happiness, confidence, or well-being”.  That psychology is universal today.

Friday, April 19, 2019

Gold UUP & HUI Combo Chart…Now is Not the Time to be Complacent / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

On Tuesday of this week I posted this combo chart showing the possible small blue flag forming on the UUP ( US Dollar). This morning the price action gapped above the top rail and is now approaching the top rail of the rising wedge formation. The sixth reversal point will be completed when the top rail is hit. This is where it’s getting interesting. Many investors believe the US dollar is going to go down or collapse which could be the case. On the other hand what if the US dollar breaks out above the top rail of its August rising wedge?

Friday, April 19, 2019

Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

Thursday, April 18, 2019

The Notre Dame Fire: Lessons for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Monday’s fire of Notre Dame Cathedral shocked the world. Since then, the French, the Catholics, and the architecture and art lovers hadn’t been talking about anything else. The precious metals community was less disturbed – even though it turns out that gold investors can actually learn a lot from the Notre Dame’s fire.

We have visited Paris for the first time only a month ago. Maybe this is why the images of Notre Dame being consumed by fire have aroused our emotions, even though we are not connoisseurs of architecture. Luckily, the cathedral has survived and the scale of damages is not as grave as it first seemed.

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Gold Market Key Message from IMF / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the IMF, during which the latter organization released its fresh World Economic Outlook, has just ended. What are the takeaways for the gold market?

Stagnation or Acceleration after the Slowdown?

In Thursday’s Gold News Monitor, we pointed out that the IMF significantly cut outlook for the Eurozone’s economic growth this year from 1.6 to 1.3 percent. But what about other economies? The IMF forecasts now 2.3 percent rise in the American GDP, 0.2 percentage point slower than it was projected in January. Global growth is now projected to be 3.3 percent, a downward revision from the 3.5 percent forecasted three months earlier. After such cuts in world economic outlook, gold should shine, shouldn’t it?

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The big picture fundamentals for precious metals have been trending more bullish in recent months as expectations for the Federal Reserve went from a few rate hikes in 2019 to an expectation of a rate cut within the next 12 months. That is aligned with the peak in the 2-year yield and growing concerns over slowing growth globally.

However, that doesn’t preclude a temporary improvement in the economy and markets. China is stimulating again. Global equities have recovered and the S&P 500 is on the cusp of a new high.

All of this means a Fed rate cut in the next 12 months is less likely. Not unlikely but less likely.

Precious Metals have been trading on Fed rate expectations for a while. Higher highs in equities and some stabilization in the economy will chip away at expectations for a rate cut and as a result, some bearish price action is showing up in the precious metals sector.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Three Rules for Making a Winning Investment in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The questions first-time precious metals buyers ask most often are "what should I buy?" and "how do I get started?" We have covered these questions many times over the years, but they are worth reconsidering from time to time.

The very first rule of precious metals investing is to avoid collectible coins and buy low-premium bullion (non-collectible) products instead. Well, to be precise, it is actually those many shady rare coin dealers one needs to avoid.

The dealers to avoid are usually the ones heavily marketing on TV and radio using celebrity spokesmen, looking for inexperienced buyers. They know what buttons to push. The ads talk a lot about real issues – concerns such as the massive federal debt and the potential for U.S. dollar depreciation to wipe out savings and wealth.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It was a big surprise. The dovish surprise. In March, Powell doubled down on its accommodative stance. Does he know something we are not aware of? We invite you to read our today’s article about the recent Fed’s U-turn and find out whether it will support the gold prices.

Three months can make a big difference! In December 2018, the Fed raised the federal funds rate and signaled another two hikes in 2019 and further one in 2020. Powell also reaffirmed that the Fed would continue to unwind its balance sheet, by up to $50 billion per month, and he sounded very hawkish. But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting at the end of January, he sounded much softer, announcing that the Fed would pause its interest rate hikes and end its balance sheet normalization this year. But in March, Powell doubled down on its dovish stance, signaling no hikes in 2019 and just one hike in 2020. The FOMC also announced that the quantitative tightening will end in September, after tapering its pace in May. What caused the Fed’s U-turn?

Monday, April 15, 2019

Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase.  In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span.  Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change.  But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.

This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me to update us on some of the best value propositions he sees in the markets. He also reveals why he’s very bullish on the metals right now and why he expects the next leg higher to happen in the blink of an eye. Don’t miss another wonderful conversation with the man the Mining Journal named America’s Best Fund Manager, Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets are struggling to gain ground as gold prices continue to oscillate around the $1,300 level.  For a 7th straight week, gold traded into or out of $1,300 per ounce. Earlier in the week, gold climbed above that key level but got pulled back below it Thursday on heavy selling.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Palladium, Darling of the PGEs, Shifting into High Gear / Commodities / Palladium

By: Richard_Mills

The platinum group elements (PGEs) consist of six metallic elements found in the Periodic Table: iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), palladium (Pd), platinum (Pt), rhodium (Rh) and ruthenium (Ru). Platinum and palladium are the most well-known of the PGEs due to their industrial applications in diesel and gasoline engines. The market for palladium has become especially interesting of late, with the price of the silvery-white metal gaining 18% in 2018, an otherwise down year for metals. Scaling an uncharted $1,600 per ounce in March, palladium is up 70% from a year ago.

We’ll get into the reasons for that in this article, and much more, as we dig deep into the world of PGEs.

Characteristics

PGEs share similar physical and chemical properties, and they usually occur together in the same orebodies. The similarities include a resistance to corrosion, high melting points, and catalytic qualities, meaning they speed up chemical reactions without themselves being chemically altered.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

MMT is a spectacularly Dem idea / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

Economists are good for one thing, and that is creating theories. The trouble is, those theories are often wrong. This is why economics is often called “the dismal science”. Such is the case with the latest economic soup-de-jour, Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.

In this article we take a deep dive into MMT: What is it? Who’s behind it or against it, whether it could work, and what it would mean for gold.

What is MMT?

Modern Monetary Theory is a new way of approaching the US federal budget that is both unconventional and absurd. It posits that rather than obsessing about how large the debt has grown (over $2 trillion) and the ongoing annual deficits that fuel debt, we should focus on spending, specifically, how the government can target certain spending programs that will cause minimal inflation. Fiscal policy on steroids is, according to its proponents, to be the new engine of US growth and prosperity.