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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, October 02, 2022

Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?

Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Gold – A Case Of Unrealistic Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD – WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

Question No. 1. What’s wrong with gold?

Question No.  2. Inflation is roaring and gold is dropping in price. Since gold is an inflation hedge, why isn’t its price going up?

If you need to ask either or both of those questions, then you are likely suffering from a case of unrealistic expectations involving gold and its price behavior.

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Commodities

Monday, September 26, 2022

Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?

It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.     

Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.

All right, what’s next?

First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.

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Commodities

Friday, September 23, 2022

All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?

In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.

What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.

The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Commodities

Monday, September 19, 2022

Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers.  The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness.  But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them.  This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.

With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today.  Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent.  And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows.  Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.

Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically.  In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year!  That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high!  It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2022

Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.

Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.

The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?

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Commodities

Friday, September 09, 2022

Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders.  Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s.  That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg.  But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling.  When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.

As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control.  Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it.  The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022!  That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath.  This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.

That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high!  That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation.  Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that.  With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels.  Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent.  After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead.  Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.

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Commodities

Friday, September 02, 2022

Gold Falls as Powell Appears Hawkish in Jackson Hole / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium confirmed his hawkish stance, sending gold prices towards $1,700.

Markets Were Quick to React to Powell’s Speech

Jackson Hole is behind us! What have we learned from Powell’s remarks at this year’s symposium? Well, the Fed Chair delivered a decisive and firm speech that reinforced the Fed’s hawkish stance and put to rest beliefs about a quick dovish pivot:

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.

Although Powell didn’t specify how large the next interest rate hike will be, he said that “another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting”. Importantly, Powell downplayed July’s deceleration in inflation, saying that “a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down”.
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Commodities

Thursday, September 01, 2022

Nothing Is Stopping the Gold GDXJ From Reaching 2020 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Both gold and silver’s results sagged, but gold stocks are the worst performers so far. What is this decline leading to?

Gold moved visibly lower yesterday, silver closed at the second-lowest level in over 2 years, and miners (both GDX and GDXJ) formed their lowest daily close in over 2 years! If someone has chosen to take short positions, profits have increased.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Gold 2022 Doesn’t Have to Be Like 1980 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A recession is coming – but will it really be positive for gold? After all, the yellow metal plunged in 1980, despite an economic downturn.

Recession and Stagflation


Everyone says that the upcoming recession and stagflation will be good for gold. However, will they really? Some doubts also arose in my mind, so let’s investigate them. I, of course, don’t dispute that gold soared in the 1970s. This is a fact which is illustrated nicely by the chart below.
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Commodities

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

SILVER COIN PREMIUMS

In 1972, a bag ($1000 face value) of “junk” US silver coins sold for approximately $1300-1350. The average closing price of silver that year was $1.68 oz; hence, the silver content (715 ounces) value was $1200 per bag. The remaining difference was a premium of about ten percent.

A lower silver price would generally result in higher percentage premiums because the face value of $1000 represented a ‘floor’ which limited the risk of holding the coins. In other words, the real investment risk was limited to the amount you paid over the $1000 face value.

For example, if the price of silver were to fall to $1.00 oz., the silver content value of the bag would be $715 ($1.00 oz. x 715 ounces) Since the coins were legal tender and still accepted at their face value, though, the full bag of coins retained its face value of $1000.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Heading Lower – Setup Like 1989-03 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Fear is starting to become an issue. Traders are starting to realize inflation, CPI, PPI, and global currencies are reacting to the sudden policy shift by the US Fed and global central banks. This fear is showing up in the Gold-to-Silver ratio as well.

My research suggests the closest comparison to the current Gold/Silver setup may be found by looking at the early 2000~2003 US markets. Let’s investigate this setup a bit further.

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Commodities

Monday, August 08, 2022

The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The federal criminal trial of JP Morgan executives Michael Nowak, Gregg Smith, and Jeffrey Ruffo began on July 8th. These senior bankers are accused of running a years-long scheme to manipulate precious metals prices through what is known as “spoofing.”

Perhaps the three will be found guilty, but it isn’t likely to have much impact on trading in the paper silver markets. If there is solution to artificially rigged prices, it will come from somewhere else.

It isn’t that regulators don’t have a lot to go on. Investigators had the goods when prosecutors got Deutsche Bank to plead guilty and cooperate.

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Commodities

Friday, August 05, 2022

Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US economy fell into a technical recession. As a safe-haven asset, will gold soar now?

What Is Recession, Anyway?

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the technical recession! According to the initial measure of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP dropped 0.9% in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter (annualized quarterly rates). As the chart below shows, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP decreased by 0.4 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Thus, the US economy recorded two quarters of negative growth, which implies a technical recession.

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Commodities

Friday, August 05, 2022

SILVER’S BAD BREAK  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

Bad breaks can be tough to recover from. The process can be arduous and can take a long time. Sometimes a full recovery remains elusive and distant.

Silver has a history of bad breaks over the past half-century.  Below is a series of charts that tell the story…

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 03, 2022

Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Despite gold’s latest move higher, its outlook remains bearish. If its 2012-2013 pattern is to repeat, it means gold is now preparing for a big fall.

Patience Advised

Gold moved higher on Friday, so you might be wondering if this changed anything regarding the outlook. In short, it didn’t.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 31, 2022

Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: EWI

This suggests "a burgeoning slowdown in economic activity"

It may seem strange to bring up deflation when surveys show that inflation is the public's number one worry.

But who would have thought that inflation would become a big issue, say, just two years ago?

Right -- a relatively small percentage of people. The point is: Things can unexpectedly change -- fast.

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