Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 30, 2016
Donald Trump Post Debate Meltdown, Betfair Betting Market Points to Collapse in Odds of Winning / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
According to the betting markets It appears Donald Trump's campaign is in full meltdown mode in the wake of Trumps loss to Hillary in the first debate following which instead of Trump's campaign trying to learn lessons from the defeat, instead has increasingly witnessed delusional Trump claiming victory and doubling down on by basically magnifying that which lost him the debate in the eyes of the voters as illustrated by calling into Fox and Friends that literally had the presenters grimacing in response to some of the statements that Trump was making such as being in the lead in fictitious opinion polls and then trying to defend the fat Miss Universe saga.
Friday, September 30, 2016
After the Debate, the Deluge? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: David_Galland
Dear Debate-Watchers,
“I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”
Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.
For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 30, 2016
Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Why Trump Lost, Hillary Won the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate and waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I too can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary clearly won as the following video illustrates why:
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Did Trump Win the 1st US Presidential Election Debate? - There's Something Happening Here... / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate, waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary won.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Fascist Trump Versus Communist Hillary Battle on a Sinking Ship / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
We watched (and live tweeted ;@dollarvigilante) the US Presidential debates last night… mostly because we were hoping Hillary would drop dead on live TV.
Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.
What did happen was that the two choices for the lesser evil this year, came down to: slightly more fascist (Trump) versus slightly more communist (Clinton).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Why There is Trump / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s over! The entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived, is over! That’s why there’s Trump.
There is no growth. There hasn’t been any real growth for years. All there is left are empty hollow sunshiny S&P stock market numbers propped up with ultra cheap debt and buybacks, and employment figures that hide untold millions hiding from the labor force. And most of all there’s debt, public as well as private, that has served to keep an illusion of growth alive and now increasingly no longer can.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Hillary Wins, Trump Loses 1st Presidential Election Debate Confirmed by Betting Markets / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion Donald Trump clearly lost the debate, he literally came across at times as a spoilt brat, even as a cartoon figure whilst Hillary mostly came across as the responsible adult. So it looks like just as I warned was possible that Donald Trump could end up losing the election by failing to stick to a script, instead letting his mouth run rabid. He clearly just cannot control himself for more than a few minutes, and with 2 more debates to go means Hillary definitely has a fighting chance so this election certainly remains a close race right upto election night.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Trump Betting Odds Narrow Going into 1st Presidential Debate Suggesting Trump Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Here’s Why Trump Needs More Than the Popular Vote to Win This Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
By David Galland, Garret/Galland Research : While driving around Burlington, Vermont, I noticed something. Actually, I noticed something missing. There were zero bumper stickers in support of Hillary.
I didn’t see a single lawn sign either.
It’s quite a contrast. In the last two elections, the displays for Obama were everywhere.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 26, 2016
Donald Trump’s Electoral Struggle / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Antonius_Aquinas
After touting her pro-labor union record, the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua rhetorically asked, “why am I not 50 points ahead?” Her chief rival bluntly responded: “because you’re terrible.”* No truer words have been uttered by any of the candidates about one of their opponents since the start of this extraordinary presidential campaign!
Monday, September 26, 2016
Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: James_Quinn
As this vitriolic, unpredictable, outrageously entertaining presidential campaign enters its final stages I find myself pondering what happens next. I was reminded of the last scene in the 1972 movie, The Candidate. The movie is about a young untested non-politician candidate for U.S. Senator in California who puts his fate in the hands of a veteran political operative and overcomes a double digit polling deficit to win a huge upset victory. His entire focus during the campaign was to win. In the final scene of the movie he is standing among the celebrating campaign staffers and the fawning press corp. with a befuddled look on his face. He grabs his political consultant campaign manager and pulls him into a room. As the press break into the room he asks, “What do we do now?” The question goes unanswered and the movie ends.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's definitely something in air across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's definitely something in the air in many nations across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings. The middle classes and working poor have had enough of being systematically turned into slaves in the service of the ruling elite, now in open rebellion as the supposed peoples power has effectively been transferred over to the corporations, bankers and billionaires who like Zuckerberg engage in publicity stunts of donating a few billion dollars here and there in an attempt to mask the magnitude of their greed. If the likes of Gates and Zuckerberg really wanted to help ordinary people then they would pay their fair share of tax rather than the pittance that allows them to amass obscenely huge fortunes.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
What If Clinton Wins US Presidential Election 2016 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to polls, the race to the White House is over. Clinton has won, Trump has lost. If that proves the case, US economic erosion will slow but imperial foreign policy may escalate, which has critical repercussions in Asia.The polls reflect the new status quo. Despite her high unfavorability ratings, Clinton now has the support of every second registered voter, whereas Trump, with his high unfavorability ratings, can rely only on every third. As a result, Clinton’s likely voters nationwide amount to 45-50 percent, as against Trump’s 35-40 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Hillary - Finally Well Deserved Recognition for Deplorables / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: BATR
When the criminal Clinton cabal announces that their infamous foe and now world renowned 'basket of deplorables' are threats to their power establishment, you are really hearing an admission that they are losing the war of ideas. It has long been a well established fact that psychopaths on the loony left are existing in a parallel universe, but it is relatively new just how desperate they have become since the public is waking up to their century long scheme to destroy America. While more and more people are joining the cause of rational national self preservation, the task of mobilizing the ranks of long oppressed productive citizens is still in its infancy stage.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Donald Trump and the “Maestro” (Greenspan) / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was once laudably referred to as “Maestro” for his supposed astute stewardship of U.S. monetary policy, commented last week on the nation’s current political and economic climate:
Read full article... Read full article...We’re not in a stable equilibrium. I hope
we can all find a way out because this too
great a country to be undermined, by how should
I say it, crazies.*
Sunday, September 18, 2016
Billionaire Donald Trump Says The Markets Are False And Will Collapse on January 1st / ElectionOracle / Financial Crash
By: Jeff_Berwick
This week Donald Trump said, “If it was a choice between the right decision and a political decision… The Fed would choose the political decision.”
He then stated that the market “will remain at artificially high levels until January 1st”. This came not long after he slammed Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen in a CNBC interview when he told the interviewer that she should be “ashamed” of her “very political” and “false” market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 18, 2016
The President’s Physician Appears to be Babbling Incoherently / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Walter_Brasch
Hillary Clinton is recovering from a mild case of pneumonia. However, shortly after she collapsed at Ground Zero while part of the 15th annual memorial of 9/11, her campaign staff said she was just exhausted and suffered heat exhaustion. It took a couple of days for her to reveal the extent of her medical issue.
Donald Trump, who had many times this past year questioned Clinton’s health and suggested she should leave politics, now tweeted he was hoping his Democratic opponent would have a quick recovery. However, the Renegade Republicans, fueled by scandal-makers of the conservative media, think Clinton is a piñata, and are hitting her hard—she has Parkinson’s disease; she suffered from a concussion; the Democratic National Committee is working on how to replace her because she is so ill; she is on her death-bed, and a body double is the one the public is seeing.
Friday, September 16, 2016
US Election 2016 - Why Your Vote Doesn’t Count / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: David_Galland
Dear Parade-Goers,
In our quest for perpetual summer, this week we are transitioning back to our Argentine home. As a result, I intend to be brief, though there are a couple of observations I want to share related to the pending US presidential election.
On the musical front, I am still mostly stuck on Dire Straits, a group I haven’t paid much attention to until recently. As the parade begins, I am teeing up the entire album of their greatest hits.
Read full article... Read full article...