Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market managed to squeak out some additional gains this week, and the S&P is now up 15 of the past 19 weeks. A lot of traders are probably wondering “when will the stock market’s rally end?”
The economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish.
- The medium term direction (e.g. next 6-12 months) has a bullish lean.
- The stock market’s short term leans bearish
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Stock Market Failed Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high (as a B-wave?) before another significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
When the Uber-Wealthy Bash the Wealth Gap, It's Time to Worry / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn
Multi-billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently published a 7500-word call to reform American capitalism. Noting that the nation's wealth gap is the "highest since the 1930s," Dalio wrote that rather than distributing income equally, capitalism is "producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots" which "pose existential threats to the United States," and amount to a "national emergency."
Parts of Dalio's message sound eerily close to another article authored by another uber-successful capitalist, John J. Raskob. In his piece "Everybody Aught to Be Rich," Raskob writes:
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Stock Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.
Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency. Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely. But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels. These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.
Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears. The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer. Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support. Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.
This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing. At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years! That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500. Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors. But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.
Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019. Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows. In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying. Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Stock Market Investing Dow Theory Overview. / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Christopher_Quigley
Applying Dow Theory To Investment Practice.
I first came across Dow Theory in 1989 when I lived in Belmont, San Mateo County, California. I thought its creators Charles Dow and William Hamilton had unique insight into stock market behaviour. Accordingly, for over ten years I developed a course incorporating their fascinating insights and have been solidly teaching their market philosophy for over 12 years; writing my first published on the topic in 2007.
One of the most difficult tasks I have encountered teaching this subject is how to prevent students
Friday, May 03, 2019
US Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting. The markets should take this as a sign of relief. Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.
The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment. A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies. Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
How Close is the Stock Market From Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months. Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.
Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over. Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020. Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings. Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets. Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Why the Stock Market Rallied So Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Most market analysts didn’t expect the stock market to recover so fast, but if you knew how Elliott Wave works, you could have anticipated the current move.
- What’s Next for the Stock Market
- Understanding the Bigger Picture
- E-Waves and Cycles
Monday, April 29, 2019
S&P 500 at Last Year’s Record High, Will Stock Market Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, as investors reacted to the quarterly corporate earnings, better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 got very close to the September 21st record high again. Will it reach the new all-time high today?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.5% on Friday, slightly extending the uptrend, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index retraced all of its medium-term downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge is now less than 0.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,940, marked by the mentioned record high. The next resistance level is at 1,950. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,920, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,900.
The broad stock market retraced all of its December sell-off and it broke above the medium-term resistance level of around 2,900 recently. So is it still just a correction or a new medium-term uptrend? We may see an attempt at getting back to the record high. There have been no confirmed negative medium-term signals so far. The index got very close to its last October all-time high, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Monday, April 29, 2019
Stock Market Alarm bells? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high before another significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield curve inversion panic, brexit panic, US economy in a downwards death spiral, bear market this that and the other. The mainstream media's doom and gloom expectations of a recession these past few weeks to resolve in an bear market has instead had stocks clambering towards achieving new all time highs! Though many bears technically or rather delusionally continue to cling onto stocks being in a bear market until they break to new all time highs.
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
Fed Pause Fuels New S&P Highs… Is It Real? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
I’m Mike Gleason and welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast.
A few weeks ago we heard the first half of an interview Money Metals president Stefan Gleason did during a recent 360 Gold Summit. Today we’ll hear part two of that interview. Stefan gives some important warnings to precious metals investors, discusses why he favors one of the precious metals over the others and also talks about some really important things to consider when selecting a precious metals dealer. Don’t miss the eye-opening conclusion of Stefan’s interview, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, the big headline in markets this week – the S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high in nominal terms.
But is it a new high in real terms? Most in the financial media don’t want to ask that question. They would rather join their Wall Street sponsors in celebrating a new official record.
President Donald Trump certainly didn’t miss the opportunity to boast about the stock market’s strength under his watch.
Read full article... Read full article...Donald Trump: The stock market and our country from an economic standpoint is doing the best probably it's ever done. We're hitting new highs again. We've hit new highs, I guess, close to or over 100 times since I'm president from the time of the election.
Friday, April 26, 2019
Are Stock Market’s Internals Sending Bearish Warnings? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the stock market at all-time highs, many market pundits have noted that relatively few stocks are making new highs. In their minds, this supports the bearish narrative that “relatively few stocks are holding this stock market rally together, and sooner or later the house of cards will come tumbling down”.
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
Financial Stocks Setting Up An Island Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears. Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs. We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.
Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future. We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.
An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap. In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue. Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends. Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
SPX Goldilocks Now, But She’ll Be Vanquished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us – in hindsight – that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50 day moving average, which was the original target.
After that I was compelled by the market’s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then… a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it’s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer/market commentator) talking about human feelings.
There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don’t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer’s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it’s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The December 24-26 low in the stock market finished an E-Wave xyz bullish flag, which itself was likely an X wave of larger degree. The move up to all time highs within only 4 months of a 20% pull back has been quite impressive. The xyz pattern is a very bullish e-wave pattern and the current Wave Y runs an abc type rally with “a” due in this general time frame. The 20-week low (“b”) is due around May 17-20 and it wouldn’t surprise me that an intermediate top forms shortly (within the next 1-4 trading sessions) and drops 9-10% into the mid May expected low. The 9 month top (“c” of Y) is due in early July and a move to above S&P 500 3100 would not surprise me at all, but like I said, a 9-10% pull back is likely first.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs. Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations. When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.
The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018. A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months. With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.
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