Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has continued to prove REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as the charts over the past 15 months illustrate, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The on-again, off-again, on-again Trump trade war with China coupled with weakening signs of U.S. economic growth has placed the S&P 500 into another multi-month consolidation.
Stocks continue to gyrate from mid-year as news of a possible trade deal appears to solidify only to have a reverse decision suddenly develop.
This whip-sawing creates uncertainty among traders. As such, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average has remained in a 10% trading band over the last six months, whereas the Canadian TSX has been held in a tighter 6% trading range (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has continued to prove REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as the charts over the past 15 months illustrate, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble / Stock-Markets / IPOs
By: John_Mauldin
Justin Spittler : Who remembers Pets.com? It launched one of the world’s first online pet stores. It never did sell many dog collars or cat treats. But its witty branding made it a cultural phenomenon in America.
Maybe you remember its goofy mascot from the late 1990s.
The dog sock puppet appeared on Good Morning America. He floated down the streets of New York City during the 1999 Thanksgiving Day Parade. He even got on TV during Super Bowl XXXIV.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe the global concerns centered around Banking and Debt within the Emerging Markets and Asia/Europe are very likely to become major issues over the next 3+ months. These potentially dangerous issues could have far-reaching pricing ramifications for almost all of the world’s financial markets. This weekend, we received first-hand information from an associate in Hong Kong about banks limiting ATM withdrawals and very limited transportation services. Our source stated the biggest issue was the lack of transportation right now.
We also followed the news of the Bank collapse in India this weekend and the aftermath for Indian banking customers – PMC Bank
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Tuesday, October 08, 2019
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the media highlights the potential impeachment process in the coming weeks, many are so concerned that this will be the “cause” of the market drop we are expecting. Yet, history suggests otherwise.
The narrative will certainly play out as follows: The market likes certainty and stability within our government. (Please ignore that this was the same reason many claimed that the market was going to crash if Trump was elected – yet we were pounding the table in expectations of a large rally). However, an impeachment proceeding places us into a very uncertain and unstable situation within our government. Therefore, the market will react negatively to that uncertainty.
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Monday, October 07, 2019
Stock Market Back to Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, October 07, 2019
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his observations on recent market fluctuations.
On Wednesday, as the kiddies were upset over a swooning S&P, then trading a paltry 5% from the all-time high of 3,027, I tweeted out this graphic that perfectly describes my cynical view of the paper markets around the world.
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Sunday, October 06, 2019
Stock Market 6 Month Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
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Saturday, October 05, 2019
Strategies on how to be a Successful CFD Trader / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Submissions
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Saturday, October 05, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank ‘Guarantees’ Dow Will Not Sink Below 26k / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Today is an important day for people like myself. I have maintained for years that the Federal Reserve Bank is an evil institution and their only goal is enslavement of humans. They accomplish this task with multiple weapons. Their best weapon is the stupidity of those humans who don’t seem to understand any more about their world than does the burrow harnessed to a grinding wheel. They just keep going round and round and the only person getting anywhere is the owner of the grinding wheel. That would be the Fed.
Another powerful weapon they use is the stock market. As long as the Dow continues to advance higher, no one will question how it got there. And, as long as the Dow advances, the idiots that invest their money will continue to exude arrogance of their investment knowledge. At the end of the day, investors know nothing about anything. The Dow Jones Industrial average is now simply a carrot to keep the burrow walking in a circle.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018. Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets. The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market. Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Have you been following our research? Were you prepared for this move like we were? Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets? What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?
Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened. In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES. On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”. On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Cycles Supporting Market Consolidations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Cycles show how regular time and price periods work within price action, they help thread the needle as to where price may move to next. Cycles with Wyckoff logic help expose how fundamentals are working through price action to motivate price to a new level. Here are some examples of cycles with other readtheticker indicators. Chart 1: If the SP500 trends higher on QE4 and gold holds up, then gold stocks should do well, and most likely out perform gold itself.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Will Stock Market S&P 2955 Break or Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Ricky_Wen
The fourth week of September played out as a downside range consolidation pattern as the bulls failed their immediate upside setup and bears tried to resurrect themselves. In hindsight, the week played out according to statistics since 1960 as the week after September OPEX remains the weakest week. The only problem with the week is that there was still no decisive winner as price kept flirting with the 2955 breakdown or hold-above pattern on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). Friday during RTH pierced below 2955 for a few minutes, but the price action was unwilling to close below it, so everything is still stuck in the overall range.
The main takeaway from the fourth week of September is that both sides are starting to get impatient now because it’s been two weeks of digestion versus the three weeks of August continuous upside grind. The only thing that matters now is whether this is just a simple backtest of August’s breakout 2930-2940 zone or bears finally can resurrect themselves with the 3020s double-top pattern.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Fed Has Admitted It Screwed Up… the Next Crisis is Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
That’s THREE strikes against the Fed.
The Fed cut rates again in September.
At this point, trying to keep track of the Fed’s reasoning for monetary policy is all but impossible. There is no logic or reason behind anything they do.
A year ago, the Fed told us that hiking rates four times a year while running $50 billion in Quantitative Tightening (QT) per month would have no effect on the economy or financial system.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Stock Market Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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