Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, August 16, 2010
Stock Market Mandarin Monday as China Moves into Second Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
China became the World’s 2nd largest economy this weekend. Or rather, Japan became number three because it’s not so much what China did as what Japan did not do, which was (or was not, in this case) grow. Japan’s GDP came in at a pathetic 0.4% annualized pace in Q2, about 1/6 of the 2.3% pace expected and 90% slower than the 4.4% pace of Q1. At least we can’t call Japan a “double dip” – they haven’t been out of a recession since the ’80’s…Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 16, 2010
Banking Stocks Index Shows Unusual Oversold Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Last Monday, we posted the Banking Index chart and discussed its impending breakout of a triangular pattern.
As you may recall, the implications were for a 10%+ down move if it broke to the downside.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Stock Market Bears Maintain Control... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Recommendation: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Stock Market to Plunge to Below Dow 9000 by November 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
My apologies for being so bold in the subject line. But this is one of the most important columns I’ve ever written. Why? Because today I am going to give you a major heads up on the trends I see unfolding over the next few months.
More importantly, I am also going to show you how those short-term trends are going to set the stage for the longer-term trends that you’re going to see unfold over the next few years.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Merger and Acquisitions Bouys European Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks fell on again on Friday, with the S&P 500 Index dropping a fourth day in a row, as weaker-than- estimated retail sales drove down consumer shares and Intel sank to a six-month low. Nordstrom. declined 7.2% after saying expenses increased in the second quarter, while retailers J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl’s Corp both .retreated at least 3.2%. Intel, the largest maker of computer processors, fell on concern about increased competition although the better than expected Michigan consumer confidence mid afternoon did help the market rebound from the intra day lows. Utilities had the only gain among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 after Dyneg received a takeover bid.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Emerging Stock Markets Thrive as U.S. Shares Tumble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: As the U.S. stock markets struggle in the midst of slowing economic growth, emerging stock markets are thriving as their surging economies provide cover for savvy investors.
Stocks tripped over the past week after a weak jobless claims report and a lukewarm revenue outlook from Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) on Thursday put an exclamation point on worries about a muddled Federal Reserve Bank policy. U.S. markets lost more than 4% in one of their weakest five-day spans of the year, including a 90% Downside Day on Wednesday that featured a rare event: All 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials Average closed lower.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Stocks Distributing Into Weak Hands, Politicians With the Worst of Intentions / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Ancient Rome declined because it had a Senate, now what's going to happen to us with both a House and a Senate? - by Will Rogers, humorist
Housing foreclosures hit new highs last month as the hangover from the housing bubble continues. It is estimated that 32% of all mortgages now have negative equity, meaning the debt on the house exceeds the value of the house. So here’s a question: if you bought a house for US $400,000, you have a mortgage on it for $350,000, and it’s worth US$ 225,000, what is the proper business decision to make? I’m not talking about the moral dilemma here; I am simply looking at it as a business decision.
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Sunday, August 15, 2010
Gold, Crude Oil, SP500 and U.S. Dollar Trading At Key Pivot Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Last week was exciting as investments rocketed higher or tank… We saw Gold and the US Dollar pop while oil and equities dropped sharply with heavy volume.
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Sunday, August 15, 2010
Stock Market Trending Towards October Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend.The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in an intermediate downtrend which should come to an end in October 2010.
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Sunday, August 15, 2010
Central Bankers Stoking the Inflation Fires, Whilst Academic Economists Worry about Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
This week the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King realised that his attempts at talking inflation down have failed and that now 8 months on he is looking rather foolish by continually stating that high inflation is just temporary, where even the mainstream press that had been lapping up the mantra are now no longer taking him seriously, so now the Governor is suggesting that inflation will remain above the 2% target level for the whole of 2011 (current CPI 3.2%, RPI 5%) which translates into watch for UK CPI to go above 4% and and RPI above 6% during 2011, in line with my expectations since early May.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stocks, Housing and Economy, Mass Delusion American Style / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." - Charles Mackay- Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process. The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials. It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stock Market Party on Wall Street Like Its 1929 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
On Tuesday, the Fed announced that it will reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into US Treasuries. The process is called Quantitative Easing. In theory, Q.E. increases inflation expectations so that consumers spend more and rev up the economy. That's the theory. But adding to bank reserves when the banks are already loaded to the gills, achieves nothing. It doesn't put money in the hands of people who will spend it, generate more economic activity or increase growth. It's a big zero. Oddly enough, the Fed even admits this. According to an article in Bloomberg News, "The Central Bank posted a paper co-written by Seth Carpenter, associate director of the Fed’s monetary-affairs division, finding that the “quantity of reserve balances itself is not likely to trigger a rapid increase in lending.” No "increase in lending" means no credit expansion and no rebound. Thus, QE will have no real impact.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Jakarta Stock Market Index A Leading or Misleading indicator? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Note to the reader: This article is not a treatise on technical analysis. It is an attempt to demonstrate how important it is to understand the nature and dimensions of the problems facing the world economy. The core issue has nothing to do with “money”. The core issue relates to waning supplies of energy to power transportation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 14, 2010
No August Surprise, Just a Modern Day Jubilee Debt Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Markets were briefly in a tizzy last week because of the rumor the Obama Administration was poised to announce an August Surprise, supposedly the forgiveness of at least a portion of millions of mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for underwater homeowners. The word on the street was that this planned debt forgiveness was a thinly veiled attempt to cull votes for the November elections. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold the mortgages insured by the U.S. government and backstopped by taxpayers, loans the private sector may not have made due to the unacceptable credit risks of the borrowers. These quasi-government behemoths now hold over $5 trillion in mortgages. These mortgages are in pole position for the next leg down of the unfolding housing disaster.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Gold in a Bull Market, Stocks in a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
To me, the title is stating the obvious. To many, such talk is ridiculous. To paperbugs, Gold is a bubble about to pop and only stocks make you money over the long haul. To paperbugs, capitalizing the word "Gold" labels me a tinfoil hat wearer, while to me, capitalizing the phrase "federal reserve" (not federal and has no reserves) is blasphemy. How supremely ironic that everything the ex-American presidents Jefferson and Jackson warned of when it comes to central bankstaz has come to pass and yet their countenances grace the $2 and $20 federal reserve IOU-nothing notes.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stock Market Has NO Bid At 1080 S&P 500... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is shocking if you think about it. Straight down 50 points. Right at critical support after four straight gap downs, and at oversold on the 60-minute charts. It still is having trouble catching a bid where it needs to hold. I still think there's a decent chance we get a small bounce up early next week, but it looks as if the market wants lower sooner than later. It is very unusual to see four straight gaps lower.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
U.S. Inflation Rises as Economy Slows, Stock Market Investors Say No Thanks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The Cost of Living rose last month...
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index was unchanged for the month.) Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Hoping the Weekend Brings Market Perspective / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
David Rosenberg is the special guest on CNBC this morning.
Sometimes I get the impression they intentionally counter-program any bullish point I bring up (we talked about Rosenberg in yesterday’s post). As I did say yesterday - fear sells and CNBC is in the business of selling fear, driven by their own fear of declining ratings (new lows in the last book) and irrelevance. I think one of the problems with CNBC is that they forget they are on television. On the right, I am SHOWING you a chart of weekly unemployment - TV is supposed to be all about showing you things but the only things they show you are gigantic talking heads and the dreaded "octo-box" where the loudest guy with the best one-liner wins (I guess).
Friday, August 13, 2010
Investors Profiting from the Quantitative Easing Threat / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
“Why the Fed will Soon Print $2 Trillion” - Barron’s Magazine Cover, August, 2010
Q.E. is a Major Threat, but one which properly positioned Investors can use for profit.
Just this past Tuesday, August 10, 2010 The Fed announced it would undertake a modest bit of Q.E. (Quantitative Easing) by using proceeds from its mortgage bond investments to buy U.S. Government Debt.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Max Keiser Report: Future Crimes, Rackets and Fraud in the Financial Sector / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert look at Tier Terra and future crimes. In the second half of the show, Max talks to former banking regulator William K. Black about rackets and fraud in the financial sector.
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