Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, March 06, 2011
Everything Is Now Correlated Exclusively To The Fed's Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
(ZeroHedge) The chart which we presented a few weeks ago courtesy of Sean Corrigan sees a few additional components added to it. Whereas before the chart focused on the Adjusted Austrian money supply and commodity prices, it now sees the addition of the S&P and Junk spreads. In a word: every single asset class correlates 1:1 with the Fed's balance sheet. If the Fed is really planning on ending QE2 on June 30, the market collapse will be epic. And, yes, this should not come as a surprise to anyone.
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Sunday, March 06, 2011
Elliott Wave on the DOW Ending Diagonal Pattern, Short term Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Many investors are confused with the choppy action on the DOW, so we have provided a chart to illustrate our forecast on the expected price action.
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Sunday, March 06, 2011
Delusional Crowds, Booming Economies, Stock Markets and the End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The Delusion of Crowds and the Endgame
Let the Good Times Roll
Are Booming Economies Good for the Markets?
Back to 2007?
People only accept change in necessity and see necessity only in crisis. —Jean Monnet
The economy is doing better, and we will survey some of the highlights. But does this mean the stock market is headed higher? A chart from Louis Gave got me to thinking, and I shot off a few thoughts and questions to Ed Easterling and Vitaliy Katsenelson. What ensued was a lively “battle” of charts and thoughts and more questions, so this week I let you look over my shoulder at our conversation. This letter will print longer than normal, as there are a lot of charts. I think you will find it very thought-provoking, if only a little cautionary. And we start with a look at a survey about what Americans think of the current fiscal deficit and the ways to remedy it.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
Inimical Inflation, Why we are Bearish / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Why are we bearish?
We like to go bearish when the market is testing the top of its channel as there is generally a higher percentage probability that we drop than we pop back over. Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, it's not just the Federal Reserve that is in denial but the commodity speculators, the equity investors and even the bond investors as the ALL believe they are going to get paid while MATH says that's not even remotely possible.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
SPX Stock Market Classic Reversal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
NFP +192,000, Below Expectations Of 196,000; Unemployment Rate 8.9%, Unchanged Average Hourly EarningsNonfarm payroll employment increased by 192,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing.
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Saturday, March 05, 2011
Pivotal Events for Gold, Commodities and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
"Any investors willing to bet that the commodities boom is running out of steam may need both courage and patience. Major mining companies have wagered more than US$110B on the opposite view." -Financial Post,
"Consumer Confidence in U.S. Increases to Three-Month High" -Bloomberg,
"U.S. treasury secretary: poor financial regulation in Britain fueled financial crisis." -Telegraph,
Friday, March 04, 2011
A Strong NYSE Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The NYSE Index is an exceptionally important index to follow because of its size, composition, the fact that it embodies so many program trades, and because of the focused activity coming from Institutional Investors.
Read full article... Read full article...So, what the NYSE Index is doing, how it is trending, and how strong it is are all very important elements relative to what the rest of the market is doing.
Friday, March 04, 2011
Stock and Currency Market Triangle Price Patterns Pending Breakouts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Stock indices in Asia and major currency pairs are closing in on the conclusions of large triangles that have been in formation since around 2008.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Smart Investors Are Making the Chicken Run To Protect Wealth From U.S. Government Theft / Stock-Markets / Investing 2011
Doug Casey Internationalise Your Wealth writes: With the U.S. government's ever-increasing stranglehold on Americans' assets, smart investors are now taking their wealth abroad. Doug Casey tells you how to do it, and why you shouldn't put it off any longer.
"Making the chicken run" is what Rhodesians used to say about neighbors who packed up and got out during the '60s and '70s, before the place became Zimbabwe. It was considered "unpatriotic" to leave Rhodesia. But it was genuinely idiotic not to.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Inflation-Proofing Your Investments / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
With interest rates over 15% in 1981, Harry Browne and Terry Coxon penned Inflation-Proofing Your Investments. They began:
“It’s obvious now that inflation isn’t a temporary problem that will soon disappear.”
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, SP500 and Dollar Long Term Trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Trading with multiple time frames - Every now and then it’s always a good idea to look at some different time frames to be sure you have a solid understanding for the longer term trends in play. I will admit that it’s easy to get caught up in trading the shorter time frames like the 1, 10, and 60 minute charts especially when there are large intraday movements. But every night you must reset your thinking by looking at the bigger picture.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Stock Markets and Crude Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has led to higher oil prices (see Chart 1, data plotted up to 3/1/2011). Brent crude oil was trading at $116.99 ($113.07 on 3/1/2011) as of this writing and West Texas Crude was quoted at $101.68 ($99.63 on 3/1/2011). The Libyan crisis has raised oil prices significantly in the last three trading days. The crisis in the region commenced the day after a Tunisian man set fire to himself on January 21, 2011.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Has Crude Oil Spiking Kicked-Off a New Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Today, we cover specific strategies and tactics we may employ over the coming weeks with respect to our holdings, cash, the Fed, the outlook for stocks, oil prices, and key market levels. The recent spike in oil prices has many wondering if it is “déjà vu all over again”. In July 2008, oil prices surged to over $140 per barrel with the S&P 500 trading at 1,240. As oil came back to earth over the coming months, the S&P 500 did not find buyers until hitting 666 intraday in March 2009.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
POMO? Where are you? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke finishes his two day testimony in front of Congress and the one question I liked to see asked is: would you still consider QE2 a success if the equity markets were down 10% since you signaled your intent to purchase assets in August, 2010 as opposed to being up 30%?
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Stock Market Correction, How Long and How Deep? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In my analysis of February 17th here, I suggested a stock market pullback was imminent but that the cyclical stocks bull was to continue longer term. It turned out to be timely, as we have been in correction since the 18th until today. So how long and how deep should we expect the market to consolidate or correct, and is the case for the underlying cyclical stocks bull to continue still as strong?
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
The Stock Market May Plunge / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
We have seen a larger than normal pullback in the general stock market. The media is already trotting out the perma bears to be interviewed. They are quick to point out how over extended the bullish consensus is. They are right, it does not matter which one you look at, they are all saying the same thing.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
The Math is Different at the Top / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
It's Not Rocket Science.
It's just basic arithmetic. 2+2 = 4 ...
Privately-owned central banks + discretionary monetary policy = systemic corruption/oppression.
If the Food & Drug Administration had 100% of its shares owned by private pharmaceutical companies, and, a few months after implementing some radical new regulatory directives, these companies began making record profits and their executives receiving record bonuses, then it wouldn't be too difficult to understand why.
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
NDX Lags, While Overall Stock Market Strong / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
2808 Nasdaq is a huge gap down created a week or so ago off the top. We got within 10 points today (2798) before a strong reversal lower took place. Small caps did the majority of the selling. The Nasdaq stocks as well as the Dow and S&P 500 were out performing throughout the entire trading day. The highest beta, most frothy stocks, took it on the chin showing classic bull market action. Nothing too heavy across the board, although we could definitely use more selling across the board to unwind things on those oscillators to oversold. No guarantee we get it, but the line in the sand is clearly drawn here. The Nasdaq is being protected by the 20-day exponential moving average down to the 50-day exponential moving average with gaps as well to help out while that huge open gap down at 2808 is capping things on the way up.
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Monday, February 28, 2011
American Monster, Excerpts from The Madoff Tapes / Stock-Markets / Scams
“It’s unbelievable. Goldman … no one has any criminal convictions—the whole new regulatory reform is a joke. The whole government is a Ponzi scheme.”
Here are some brief excerpts from a story in New York Magazine called The Madoff Tapes. The story runs to nine pages, so consider this just a taste and read the whole thing when you have the time. I thought Steve Fishman did a terrific job of letting Bernie talk and of presenting his thoughts in a orderly manner without a lot of interpretation and editorial intrusion. He has real talent as an interviewer, and seems a natural reporter.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Microcosm of the Market Manipulation in the US and the Repeated Failure of Ideology / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
I am seeing this same sort of 'gaming the markets' across many markets and stocks that the author notes below, especially in those markets amenable to leverage and electronic manipulation such as indices driven by futures, options markets, and ETFs which more closely resemble carney games than investment vehicles.
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