Friday, July 21, 2017

Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Very few investors caught on to it, but a few weeks ago the Fed made its single largest announcement in eight years.

First let me provide some context.

For eight years now, the Fed has propped up the stock market. In terms of formal monetary policy the Fed has:

·      Kept interest rates at ZERO for seven years making money virtually free and forcing investors into stocks and junk bonds in search of yield.

·      Engaged in over $3.5 TRILLION in Quantitative Easing or QE, providing an amount of liquidity to the US financial system that is greater than the GDP of Germany.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold-futures and silver-futures short positions held by speculators have rocketed up to extremes in recent weeks.  These elite traders are aggressively betting for further weakness in gold and silver prices.  But history has proven extreme shorts are a powerful contrarian indicator.  Right as speculators wax the most bearish as evidenced by their collective bets, gold and silver decisively bottom and birth major new rallies.

Futures trading has a wildly-outsized impact on gold and silver prices, especially over the short term.  It is amazing how much volatility futures speculators’ collective buying and selling generates, often drowning out everything else.  Two factors are responsible for this dominance.  The extreme leverage inherent in futures trading and the unfortunate fact the resulting gold and silver prices are the world’s reference ones.

Friday, July 21, 2017

XIV Hits All Time Highs As The VIX Sets Records That May Never Be Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Submissions

By Mike Golembesky : In last week’s article, I had noted that as long as the XIV was able to hold the 83.93 level, I expected to see it hit the 87.76 – 91.53 zone into this week with the potential to see a move into the mid 90’s prior to making a large degree top.

On Tuesday of this week, the XIV closed at the upper end of this 91.53 zone and then on continued to extend higher into Wednesday, and as of Thursday’s close is now trading at the 93.83 level having so far been contained by the 238.2 Fibonacci extension level of the move up off of the 7/6 low.

Friday, July 21, 2017

GBP/USD Bearish Factors / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, British pound move lower against the greenback, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakout above two important resistances. How did this negative development affect the technical picture of GBP/USD?

In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: short (a stop-loss order at 1.3232; the initial downside target at 1.2375)
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

Friday, July 21, 2017

Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold hedge against currency devaluation – cost of fuel, food, housing
– True inflation figures reflect impact on household spending
– Household items climbed by average 964%
– Pint of beer sees biggest increase in basket of goods – rise of 2464%

Friday, July 21, 2017

Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Palladium is another element with great importance to the modern economy, but it’s often overshadowed by the other more famous and expensive precious metals. As the chart below shows, palladium has been generally cheaper than platinum – its more expensive substitute in industrial use and jewelry.

Friday, July 21, 2017

“Dirty, Difficult, And Dangerous”: Why Millennials Won’t Work In Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

By Tsvetana Paraskova : Like many industries today, the oil industry is trying to sell its many job opportunities to the fastest growing portion of the global workforce: Millennials. But unlike any other industry, oil and gas is facing more challenges in persuading the environmentally-conscious Millennials that oil is “cool”.

During the Super Bowl earlier this year, the American Petroleum Institute (API) launched an ad geared toward Millennials, who now make up the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.

Friday, July 21, 2017

UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The June 8th general election result delivering 'chaos and uncertainty' instead of 'strong and stable' not only shocked Britain's political and media establishment but also looks like the UK economy suffered a heart attack with confidence fast evaporating as the economy slows down which makes a mockery of the Bank of England MPC clowns persisting in their talk of raising UK interest rates this year. And along with evaporating economic confidence is the confidence in the UK housing market that risks bringing a 5 year housing bull market to an abrupt end! And this is even before we see the chaos that will ensue once Theresa May quits as PM that risks triggering another chaos inducing general election!

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Fed May Show Trump No Love / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not. But Donald Trump has shown no reluctance to make any argument that suits his political purpose of the day, no matter its absurdity, and no matter if he has to contradict the arguments he made last year, or last week. Perhaps he assumes, as most investors seem to, that the risks are minimal because the Federal Reserve will jump in to save the markets if things turn bad. But in binding his performance so closely to the markets he overlooks the possibility that the Fed will be far less charitable to him than it was to Obama.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

By Jake Weber : No one knows when the next financial crisis will hit.

The 2008 financial crisis originated in sub-prime mortgages. Rampant speculation in dot-com stocks triggered a market panic in the early 2000s.

What will spark the next crisis?

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month that she didn’t expect a financial crisis in our lifetimes…. Of course, later she downplayed her comments, but it doesn’t change the message.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Stock Market Decline May Have Begun. Be Careful About Taking Short Positions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

While the decline doesn’t look like much yet, some of you brave souls who agree with my Cycles and Elliott Wave analysis may wish to begin adding partial short positions.

With that recommendation I warn that there are no confirmations from either the VIX or the Hi-Lo Index. It appears that both of those indicators will be laggards at this juncture. In addition, there may be some blow-back from the algos’ automatic buy programs in an attempt to keep the markets elevated. The first support is the Cycle Top at 2463.58. Positions may be added as we see supports being broken.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In the first part of the Preparing for THE Bottom series, we emphasized the need to be sure to stay alert and focused in the precious metals market, even though it may not appear all that interesting. We argued that preparing for the big moves in gold that are likely to be seen later this year should prove extremely worth one’s while. In the second part of the series, we discussed when, approximately, one can expect the key bottom in gold to form (reminder: this winter appears a likely target) and in the third part of the series, we discussed one of the confirmations that could indicate that the final bottom is in or at hand – the gold to silver ratio. The latter is not the only important ratio that one needs to keep in mind and in today’s article, we’re going to discuss two additional ones: the one based on gold and the bond market and a second one, which includes gold stocks and gold. Both ratios add to the clarity regarding the upcoming bottom and they could be used as confirmations that the bottom is indeed in or at hand.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Sheffield Tramlines Music Festival 21st to 23rd July 2017 / Local / Sheffield

By: Anika_Walayat

Sheffield's big music festival 'Tramlines' is back for another year, with music stages situated not just across the city centre but across Sheffield's many parks, pumping out music to cater for all tastes, and you don't have to pay for expensive wrist bands to enjoy the Tramlines experience as there will be several free stages across the city such as in the Peace Gardens. Here is our unique look at last years Sheffield Tramlines Music Festival 2016.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission / Politics / Protectionism

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Last summer at the Camp Kotok economics retreat, I met a man who has done business with The Trump Organization and with Trump himself.

He said Trump scrupulously followed the law in all their deals. He also added Trump would often insert innocent-looking contract clauses that later harmed the other side.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: GoldCore

– Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation
– Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts)
– Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900
– Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility
– Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility
– Bitcoin volatility against USD about 5-7 times vol of traditional forex trading

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Student Loan Bubble and Economic Collapse / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The inevitable collapse of the student loan “market” and with it the takedown of many higher educational institutions will be one of the happiest and much needed events to look forward to in the coming months/years. Whether the student loan bubble bursts on its own or implodes due to a general economic collapse, does not matter as long as higher education is dealt a death blow and can no longer be a conduit of socialist and egalitarian nonsense for the inculcation of young minds.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

JPM Elliott Wave Bullish Structure / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

The Elliott Wave view for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) suggests the rally from February 2016 low (52.5) to 03/01/2017 peak (93.98) have ended wave (3). The pullback from there unfolded as zigzag ABC structure which ended wave (4) at 06/01/2017 low (81.79). Up from there, the stock rallied in another zigzag structure before ending that short term cycle after reaching extreme on 07/06/2017 peak (94.51).

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since the Basic Materials sector is breaking out I would like to take an in-depth look at some of the stocks that make up the Basic Materials sector along with some commodities in general. Most commodities have had a tough go of it since they topped out in 2011, but there are some signs that they may be bottoming, which could lead to a substantial rally over the intermediate to the long term. As you will see some of the bottoming formations are very symmetrical while others are pretty ugly, but as long as they can make a higher high and higher low an uptrend is in place.

Lets start with the CRB index which built out a one year bearish rising wedge formation that broke to the downside in March of this year. The price action has been chopping to the downside and has gotten a bounce to the upside in late June. Normally the price objective of a rising wedge is down to the first reversal point where the pattern started to build out.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The US Dollar Falls To New Lows, And So Do The Excuses To Explain It / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

Mike Golembesky writes: The DXY Index, which is widely cited in the financial press as the "Dollar" or "US Dollar," has seen a correction that began in January of this year after topping at the 103.82 level, and has continued into this week's (Tues July 18) low, which came in at 94.48. This represents a move of just under 9%, which in the currency markets is not a small move.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Nasdaq: Not Parabolic Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Gary_Savage

At the bubble top in 2000 the Nasdaq was 156% above its 200 week moving average. Currently the Nasdaq is 29% above its 200 week moving average. Clearly not parabolic yet.