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Stock Market Expected Sell-off Arrives

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Mar 27, 2009 - 06:40 PM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer

Stock-Markets We were expecting a down session, and we got one today. The indices gapped lower on strong negative futures. They did manage to move back off the early lows in a corrective manner to make up 50% of the losses, but when it failed to generate any upside thrust by mid-morning, they rolled over sharply to test yesterday's lows on the NDX and SPX, bounced 4-5 times in the afternoon, could not break support, but also could not get above declining tops or intraday declining moving average resistance , and rolled over in the last 10 minutes to close near the lows for the day.

Net on the day the Dow closed at 7776.18, down 148.38, the S&P 500 down nearly 17 to just under 816, and the Nasdaq 100 down nearly 30 to 1251.47. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down 5.10 to around 240.

Advance-declines were better than 3 to 1 negative on New York, with 2319 down and 726 up, and also about 3 to 1 on Nasdaq, with 692 up and 2076 down. Up/down volume was worse with 1 1/4 billion down and 192 million up on New York, a better than 6 to 1 negative ratio. Nasdaq traded 1.63 billion to the downside and 446 million to the upside, a 4 to 1 negative volume ratio.

So, it was a decidedly negative day, and perhaps a short-term top was put in. But since trendlines and moving averages on the hourly charts are still holding, we'll have to hold off until early next week before we can make that determination.

Most of the stocks on board were lower other than the ultrashort ETFs. The UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) at 54.66 was up 4.28, Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) at 58.79 up 2.94 and Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) 19.95 up 1.31.

Among other gainers, DryShips (DRYS) at 5.86 was up 75 cents on 56 million shares traded, possibly an all-time high. In that same sector, Excel Maritime (EXM) at 5.31 was up 52 cents. Portfolio position Geron (GERN) was up 21 cents today to 4.89, reaching as high as 5 1/4. Best Buy (BBY) was up 37 cents to 38.04.

On the downside, Apple (AAPL) fell 3.02 to 106.85 and Amazon (AMZN) 3.17 to 70.52. JP Morgan (JPM) gave back 1.70 to 27.40 in a weak financial sector, and Morgan Stanley (MS) also lost 1.30 to 24.35.

Among the ETFs, the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) fell 1.27 to 30.75, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) at 39.20 was down 1.65, and Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) lost 1.26 to 23.54.

Agricultural chemical stocks were strong in the morning, weak in the afternoon. Potash (POT) closed 3 1/2 points off its high, down 59 cents on the day, and Mosaic (MOS) was down 1.15 to 47.05, along with Agrium (AGU) down 1.56 to 38.34.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, as indicated earlier the day saw a gap down and 5-wave decline. But the afternoon was spent in tight trading ranges and they couldn't make much headway, closing at the lows for the day, which also happened to be at the rising 40 day moving average on the hourly charts, as well as right near the rising trendlines. So, the trend is still intact but pressuring support here. We'll see what kind of follow-through we get next week.

Good trading!


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