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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Reverses Early Strong Rally to Close Lower

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Feb 05, 2009 - 03:05 AM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer

Stock-Markets The indices had an extremely strong start and a very promising morning. They ran up sharply, broke out across short-term resistance, and soared to test last week's highs on the Nasdaq 100 up near 1245, and reached just over 850 on the S&P 500. They pulled back over the next few hours in an orderly fashion, but when they couldn't break to the upside, they accelerated to the downside. In the last couple hours they backed and filled in a consolidative manner, but it looked like late bear flags were forming.

Net on the day the Dow was down just under 122, the S&P 500 down 6.29, and the Nasdaq 100 was off just 0.23, after being up for most of the session. That was still about 28 points off its earlier high today. So, it was a pretty negative afternoon session, giving back all and then some.

The technicals were negative by 17 to 13 on advance-declines on New York and by about 16 to 10 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was was about 3 to 2 negative on New York on total volume of less than 1.4 billion. Nasdaq traded just under 2.2 billion and had a 3 to 2 positive volume ratio. board was mostly higher today, and there were many point-plus gainers. Agriculture stocks led the way, with Potash (POT) up 3.89 to 79.44 , Agrium (AGU) up 1.42 to 34.49, CF Holdings (CF) up 2.10 to 50.89, and MOS up 2.66 to 39.

Shipping stocks were very strong as the Baltic Dry Index exploded. DryShips (DRYS) closed up 1.07 to 7.16 on 33 1/2 million, and Excel Maritime (EXM) jumped 1.71 to 7.98 on nearly 5 million. That was our Chart of the Day. SunPower (SPWR) on a strong earnings report was up 2.22 to 34.89.

See Harry's Chart of the Day Video Presentation

Financials weighed heavily on the markets today. Bank of America (BAC) crumbled under 5 to close at 4.70, a new low, down 60 cents on more than 600 million shares. C was flat today, up only 3 cents, and JPM was also flat, down a penny. MS, however, gained 1.07. Hartford Financial Services (HIG) dropped 4 cents.

That resulted in the Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) jumping 2.17 to 54.28. The Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) also jumped 1.05.

On the downside, there were just fractional losses other than Sequenom (SQNM), which continued to get hammered, down another 1.97 to 16.93. That's a loss of more than $7 from its high just 4 days ago.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices exploded from the get-go with the NDX reaching very near last week's highs,but the S&P 500 falling far short. The resultant rollover gave it all back and then some, as the indices closed lower.

So I'd have to say that today was definitely a negative session as they could not hold the gains, and it does not augur well for future prices. But we'll see if they can stabilize in this area and recover, or whether they take out support and head substantially lower.

Right now the market is in a no man's land and at a critical juncture.

Good trading!


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