Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) - Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.

Formulating a Stock Market Outlook for 2021

This analysis is gravitating towards expectations for the Dow to target a trend to between 34,000 and 35,000 for 2021 which would result in a gain of between 12% to 15% on the year (30388) and 9 to 11% on the last close of 31385.

In terms of a trend trajectory, the Dow has enough momentum behind it to continue the current rally into late April, after which looks set to correct during May given numerous indicators including seasonal's, channel resistance and elliott wave theory.

Whilst on the downside, the Dow looks set to find heavy support at 30k.

This article is the final excerpt form extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 that was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021

UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
The Stock Market Big Picture
Post Covid Economic Boom
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
FED Balance Sheet
Dow Short-term Analysis
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES
SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Dow to target a trend to between 34,500 and 35,000 by the end of 2021 for a gain of 13.5% to 15.2% on the year that should be punctuated by at least one significant correction starting early May 2021.

How to Cover Upto 5 Years of Patreon Fees ($180) For FREE!

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their desktop PC can make easy money crypto mining in the background, and here's how my desktop is actually earning a NET $6.50 per day crypto mining in the background, which within 3 weeks has earned $136 net of electricity cost that resolves to $200 per month, enough to cover 5 years of Patreon fees at $3 per month ($180). and that's just for the first months mining!

This is a real world example, check out the video if you want FREE money.And yes my eyes rolled when I wrote that, sounds too good to be true, unless I am completely missing something obvious? Though I do cover the risks in the video such as that the Bitcoin price could crash, and mining profits are GPU dependant. Nevertheless crypto mining in the background with Nicehash is generating $6.5 profit per day for me, so do look into crypto mining with your desktop PC (referral link).

Video Contents:

00:20 Mining with NiceHash Intro
01:20 Limit GPU System Power Draw
02:58 3 Weeks Mining Earnings
03:38 Calculating Profitability
07:24 GPU settings for Mining in the background
08:46 Which GPU's are profitable
10:03 How long to crypto mine for
11:04 What to do with your bitcoin earnings
12.30 Spend Your Bitcoin when Price is High
13.30 Bitcoin Price Could CRASH
14:45 Mine whilst profitable to do so
16:33 What to do if Bitcoin Crashes

The bottom line is that the current easy free money crypto mining environment is time limited, how long will it persist for? 1 Month? 3 Months?, a Year? Everyday counts - NiceHash.

My analysis schedule includes:

UK house prices trend forecast
Bitcoin price trend forecast
How to Get Rich
US Dollar and British Pound analysis

So do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Including access to my recent analysis - AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021

As well as my next analysis due to be completed within the next couple of days - How to Invest in High Risk Tech Stocks

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.