Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
How to Capitalise on the Robots - 20th June 24
Bitcoin, Gold, and Copper Paint a Coherent Picture - 20th June 24
Why a Dow Stock Market Peak Will Boost Silver - 20th June 24
QI Group: Leading With Integrity and Impactful Initiatives - 20th June 24
Tesla Robo Taxis are Coming THIS YEAR! - 16th June 24
Will NVDA Crash the Market? - 16th June 24
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? - 16th June 24
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles - 16th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Can A Weak US Dollar Really Push The Dow Higher?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jul 25, 2017 - 02:07 PM GMT

By: Submissions


By Mike Golembesky : After hitting the 161.8 extension up off of the April 18 lows on July 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved sideways and has traded in a very tight range of less than 1% since that July 14 top. Furthermore, the pattern both up and down off of that July 14 high has been very sloppy, not giving us very much information to work with on the smaller time frames.

This very tight range in the Dow and the other major stock indices has contributed to the record breaking low Volatility levels that we have seen over the past week, which I wrote about in this article. While these record low levels of Volatility are certainly extreme and a Volatility “reset” would be welcome by many, for now the Dow along with the rest of the US equity Indices are still holding over key support levels and have not signaled that a top is in place just yet.

Ever since the market bottomed in January of 2016, the pundits have been looking for that bombshell news event that was surely right around the corner causes the market to crash. From Brexit to Trump to Russia, there has been no shortage of black swans to go around, yet the market just kept on plugging away higher and higher.  

As we are approaching the target levels that we had set out back in the early part of 2016 when the Dow was trading almost 40% below current levels, we begin to see the pundits start to abandon their black swan theories and begin to talk about all the exogenous events that will cause this rally in stocks to continue to move full steam ahead. So while not surprising, the fact that we are seeing these articles come out now, after the Dow has moved up 40% off of the 2016 lows, is quite fascinating.

As I also cover the Foreign Exchange Markets in addition to the Equities and Volatility markets, I find it quite frustrating when I see articles and analysts discuss how a weakening US Dollar should help move stocks higher, such as the one that was recently published below:

“U.S. stock market could get powerful tailwind from weaker dollar: Morgan Stanley”

The theory behind this argument is that a weaker dollar will make the goods of US Companies less expensive in overseas markets, thus increasing earnings of those US companies. Which will then, in turn, cause the stock prices of those US Companies to move higher, thus causing the stock market as a whole to rise.

While I certainly understand the argument behind this theory and it certainly sounds like it should make sense, it simply has never proven to actually be the case in reality. There is no long term historical correlation between the value of the US Dollar and that of the US Stock Market. More frustrating is that all one has to do is simply look at a chart of the US Dollar overlaid on top of the equity chart to quickly prove this theory invalid.

As is evident by the charts linked below, it is quite clear that sometimes stocks move up when the US Dollar moves up, sometimes stocks move up when the US Dollar moves down, sometimes stocks move down when the US Dollar moves up and sometimes stocks move down when the US Dollar moves down. Again there is simply no long-term correlation that justifies the argument that a “weakening” or weak dollar is good or bad for stocks.

Yet despite the hard data disproving the theory that a weak US Dollar is good for the US Stock Market, this remains to be accepted and the common belief among most market participants and we hear this same argument repeated time and time again.

What is occurring between the US Dollar and the US equities markets is two different markets sometimes have similar sentiment patterns that will align with each other and at other times will be in complete opposition to each other. These overlapping sentiment patterns will then result in times when there is a positive or negative correlation to each other. Of course, there will also be instances when there is no strong matching sentiment in either direction during which times these two separate markets will simply show no correlation whatsoever.

So while it may make for a nice headline to state that a weak US Dollar can help to push the stock market higher, in reality, the only thing capable of pushing stocks higher, or lower for that matter, is the changing sentiment of those who are speculating in the stock market itself.

As there has been very little change this week in the movement of the Dow, the forward looking analysis from last week has also changed very little. As I noted last week:

From a purely structural standpoint and with the high that was made on June 14th, we now have what could reasonably be considered a completed pattern in place, and although I would still prefer to see the ideal target zone of 21,971 – 22,429 hit prior to topping; any break of the 21,084 level should be viewed as an early warning sign that a top in the Dow may be in place. Further confirmation of this top would come with a break of the 20,981 and finally the 20,553 level.

Once this larger degree top is confirmed we can more accurately define the support zone for the next move lower but at current price levels that support comes in at the 20,063 – 19,311 zone. Given the structure of the second wave of the same degree, I do expect the next corrective move lower to be somewhat deep; so these are very reasonable levels to expect to see the Dow hit prior to bottoming in its next corrective move lower. A move down into these levels would represent a move of 8-12 percent and given that we have not seen a corrective move of any significance since last fall this is a relatively large move in the Dow.

So regardless of whether the dollar is weak or strong or we see more “scandal” come out of Washington, as long as we are over the 21,084 level the Dow is still likely to see another high prior to topping. Once that larger degree top is made we then will focus our attention on the longer term support zone noted above and keep an eye out for a bottoming pattern that would give us the signal that we will still see yet another push higher into 2018.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the Dow, overlaid by the USD.

Mike Golembesky is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst, covering U.S. Indices, Volatility Instruments, and Forex on (, a live Trading Room featuring intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2017 Copyright Mike Golembesky- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in