Stock Market Wave Structure and Time
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 10, 2016 - 10:32 AM GMT
The 10-minute chart again offers us the best clues as to the structure of the market moves.
Linking this together with the Cycles Model which expects a Primary Cycle Pivot tomorrow, it suggests a powerful reversal down in a third wave. Originally I had interpreted Wednesday’s Pivot as a Cycle Bottom. However, today’s late afternoon high altered that perception.
I have seen other Elliott Wave structures showing the bottom at 1028.45 as the end of Wave [iii]. Why not? There are multiple reasons. First, this Wave [iii] must exceed the bottom of Wave 1 at 1812.29.
Second, the bulk of the Wave [iii] must also be beneath all Head & Shoulders necklines since Head & Shoulders targets are usually Wave [iii] targets. That is why I had been adamant that the Wave (i) target must be near the larger Head & Shoulders neckline near 1800.00. The fact that it did not go there may be an anomaly.
Third, Wave [iii] is normally extended to a multiple of Wave [i]. Wave threes extend by subdividing, as you can see in (iii) of [iii] of 3, and possibly more subdivisions to come.
Fourth, Wave threes have large, unfilled gaps. We have seen only one 5-point gap just above the Head & Shoulders neckline.
Now let’s discuss time and timing. Waves [i] and [ii] took almost exactly 17.2 hours. Waves (i) and (ii) took exactly 25.8 hours for a total of 43 hours so far in the decline from 1947.20. The decline from 2081.56 to 1812.29 took 95 hours. While I am not suggesting this decline will take 95 hours, here are a couple of thoughts on the matter. A 54-56 hour decline 10.75 to 12.9 hours left) would likely end between noon and 2:00 pm on Friday, February 12 (also a Primary Pivot day). A 60.2-hour (8.5 day) decline (which only has 17.2 hours left) may extend to approximately 11:00 am on Monday, February 15.
That means a lot of market decline has to take place in a very short time. Let’s keep on top of this, as I would expect a sharp reversal.
Regards,
Tony
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