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Stock Market Wave Structure and Time

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 10, 2016 - 10:32 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


The 10-minute chart again offers us the best clues as to the structure of the market moves.

Linking this together with the Cycles Model which expects a Primary Cycle Pivot tomorrow, it suggests a powerful reversal down in a third wave. Originally I had interpreted Wednesday’s Pivot as a Cycle Bottom. However, today’s late afternoon high altered that perception.

I have seen other Elliott Wave structures showing the bottom at 1028.45 as the end of Wave [iii]. Why not? There are multiple reasons. First, this Wave [iii] must exceed the bottom of Wave 1 at 1812.29.

Second, the bulk of the Wave [iii] must also be beneath all Head & Shoulders necklines since Head & Shoulders targets are usually Wave [iii] targets. That is why I had been adamant that the Wave (i) target must be near the larger Head & Shoulders neckline near 1800.00. The fact that it did not go there may be an anomaly.

Third, Wave [iii] is normally extended to a multiple of Wave [i]. Wave threes extend by subdividing, as you can see in (iii) of [iii] of 3, and possibly more subdivisions to come.

Fourth, Wave threes have large, unfilled gaps. We have seen only one 5-point gap just above the Head & Shoulders neckline.

Now let’s discuss time and timing. Waves [i] and [ii] took almost exactly 17.2 hours. Waves (i) and (ii) took exactly 25.8 hours for a total of 43 hours so far in the decline from 1947.20. The decline from 2081.56 to 1812.29 took 95 hours. While I am not suggesting this decline will take 95 hours, here are a couple of thoughts on the matter. A 54-56 hour decline 10.75 to 12.9 hours left) would likely end between noon and 2:00 pm on Friday, February 12 (also a Primary Pivot day). A 60.2-hour (8.5 day) decline (which only has 17.2 hours left) may extend to approximately 11:00 am on Monday, February 15.

That means a lot of market decline has to take place in a very short time. Let’s keep on top of this, as I would expect a sharp reversal.



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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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