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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

When an Over-Ripe Stock Market is Ready to Spoil

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Sep 07, 2012 - 11:54 AM GMT

By: EWI

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnyone who enjoys eating fruit knows there's a fine line between ripe and over-ripe.

If it sits in the fruit bowl too long, over-ripe turns rotten.

As experienced investors know, the stock market goes through similar phases. An overbought, or over-ripe, market can spoil quickly.


Take a look at this chart for example (wave labels removed), and ask yourself, is the stock market on the verge of spoiling?

The Aug. 10 Financial Forecast Short Term Update provides commentary to go with the chart.

[An] indicator that has moved to an overbought condition is 10-day NYSE Trin (advance/decline ratio divided by the up/down volume ratio). Wednesday's close [Aug. 8] was .937, which was the most overbought level since March 26, when 10-day Trin closed at .900 (see gray vertical line). That was five days prior to the April 2 S&P top. It's certainly possible that Trin becomes even more overbought prior to a market high, but it doesn't have to. Current levels are the exact opposite of those that attended the August, October and November 2011 lows, as marked on the left side of the chart.

EWI also looks at several other internal measures.

A healthy bull market sports broad participation among different sectors and indexes. Up days are consistently accompanied by high volume; momentum is strong.

The indicators EWI watches suggest this market is indeed overbought and still ripening.


What does the true state of the economy mean for your investments?

EWI's free report, The Economic Rot Beneath, reveals important economic numbers that you are not currently reading in the mainstream headlines - but you should be.

For instance, did you know stocks priced in real money (gold) are down 87%? Or that U.S. manufacturing jobs are half of what they were in 1979? Or that housing starts per capita are back to 1922 levels?

Learn what's really going on in the U.S. economy. Download your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline When an Over-Ripe Market is Ready to Spoil. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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