Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Northern Rock Bank to be Nationalised by UK Government

Companies / UK Banking Jan 15, 2008 - 09:02 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies It now seems like another era when I first warned of the problems specifically facing Northern Rock bank back in August 2007, some four weeks before the run on the bank occurred and the interbank money markets freeze hit the headlines. Over that period we have witnessed the initial £2 billion of tax payer loans and guarantees mushroom to an estimated £55 billions today.


The news that nationalisation is now a near certainty is not entirely unexpected as I pointed out on 18th December, that the government's announcement of the extension of guarantees to cover all deposits AND debts amounts to the tax payer expanding on original risks of about £25 billion to as much as £100 billions.

Under these circumstances a bid by any of the suitors such as the consortium led by Richard Branson's Virgin Group without an implicit guarantee and plan to repay the monies would be tantamount to giving the bidders a free lunch i.e. ALL the assets without any of the risks for as little as £400 million. I recommended at the time that the best option under the circumstances would be for a nationalisation of Northern Rock Bank, as this would allow the bank to be sold off in chunks with the outstanding tax payers monies expected to be fully repaid as Northern rocks assets are estimated to more than cover total liabilities. This would leave any left over balance to be distributed to existing shareholders at probably the rate of between £1 and £2 per share.

The shareholders put up a last ditched effort earlier today to fend off nationalisation led by two of the banks biggest shareholders, hedge funds SRM Global and RAB Capital, which jointly own 18% of the bank. As highlighted above, it is highly unlikely that the potential suitors will be able to acquire the financing to enable them to guarantee repayment of the £25 billions loaned to date, especially as the credit crunch persists.

Nationalisation of Northern Rock is expected to be announced sometime over the next 2 weeks. In advance of this move the government recruited Ron Sandler as the provisional chairman. Confidence in the bank and the sector is not helped by news that senior staff are receiving secret bonuses of up to £100,000 a year despite the banks near collapse and a new black hole in the companies pension funds.

Whilst eyes are firmly on Northern Rock Bank, investors should keep a wary eye on the next bank to face the same crisis as the UK housing bear market kicks into gear.

The banks at most risk are the small mortgage banks such as Bradford and Bingley and Alliance and Leicester. Apart from banks, financial institutions such as Paragon, Britain's third largest buy to let mortgage financing company will continue to teeter on the brink liquidation. In Paragons case, its share price has fallen from £6.20 to just 80p in 6 months.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in