Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper - 7th Oct 19
Stock Market Back to Neutral - 7th Oct 19
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable - 7th Oct 19
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver - 7th Oct 19
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather - 7th Oct 19
Check Engine Warning Light ECU Dealer Diagnostic Cost - Land Rover Discovery Sport - 6th Oct 19
Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally - 6th Oct 19
Understanding and Purchasing different types of Plastic Building Materials Online - 6th Oct 19
Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash - 6th Oct 19
Stock Market 6 Month Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video - 6th Oct 19
The True Causes Behind the Yield Curve Inversion and Gold - 5th Oct 19
Strategies on how to be a Successful CFD Trader - 5th Oct 19
Gold Stocks Correction Underway - 5th Oct 19
Climate Change When the Levee Breaks - 5th Oct 19
Federal Reserve Bank ‘Guarantees’ Dow Will Not Sink Below 26k - 5th Oct 19
The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Stock Market Story - 4th Oct 19
Confidence Drives the Economy and Trump’s Trade War Is Killing It - 4th Oct 19
ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 - 4th Oct 19
Investing Money? Why You Need a Reputable Accountant - 4th Oct 19
Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? - 4th Oct 19
Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound - 4th Oct 19
Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce - 3rd Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Outlook 2010

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jan 13, 2010 - 09:09 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Stock-Markets

At the start of every year we put together our best research and analysis and then formulate a forecast based on the most likely outcomes. Unlike others who simply say what they think will happen, we sit down and analyze the fundamental, technical and sentiment evidence and opine on what is most likely to happen, what might happen and what won’t happen. We take a lot of pride in this, as we believe we are one of the few that puts forth actionable research and makes it available to the public.


Heading into 2010 we’ve seen a range of forecasts and opinions. The econo-bears like Michael Panzner and David Rosenberg, while very prescient on the economy, continue to expect new lows or a retest of 2009 lows. Some bulls see the strong recovery as a sign that we are in a new bull market and that the market is leading the economy. Few seem to take the middle ground. Maybe that is because such a forecast isn’t worth reporting in the media. That being said, before we think what is likely, let us think what is not likely. 

Stocks have recovered too far and too fast for the super-bearish scenario. A market needs a distribution period before a huge fall. The distribution period was the 2007-2008 head and shoulders top. Also, since we are 10 years into a bear market, who exactly is left to sell? People were wiped out in the tech bubble, the housing bubble and in the recent huge decline in stocks. Since we are in a secular bear market (and most would agree) stocks are unlikely to make new highs anytime soon.

Interestingly, there is a secular bear market template that can help us project 2010 and the few years after. We are in the fourth secular bull market since the 1890s. The current bear market is following the exact path of the last three. The crash of 2008 happened in 1974, 1938 and 1907. The huge rebound of 2009 happened in 1975, 1938, and 1908. The structure and size of these three massive rebounds is a key point for 2010 as we project the future of the current rebound.

The template also helps us project commodities. The latter half of stock bears usually involve rising inflation, rising interest rates and sometimes rising taxes. Commodities really accelerate at a certain point following the crash. It was the same point in the last two stock bear markets. We apply that to the current situation.

Also, there is another point in history that shares strong similarities both fundamentally and technically to the current bull market in commodities. That history, when applied to the current commodity bull market projects acceleration in commodities in a certain year, the same year as the first template suggests. Will that be 2010? Was it 2009?

We believe that for commodities, sector selection will be important in 2010. There are two sectors you want to be long and one looks especially promising on a risk reward basis. Certainly one wants to be long precious metals. Gold has been up every year for nine years and we’ve yet to see excessive bullish sentiment or a parabolic run that would signal an impending top. Will that be in 2010?

Most predictable for 2010 is that interest rates will rise. There just isn’t the global liquidity or economic strength needed to help sovereign bonds. Moreover, if you look at how much debt was monetized this year, how much foreigners bought and compare that to the growing funding needs in 2010, there is just no way interest rates won’t rise. Monetization in both the US and UK will be needed on a greater scale and that figures to be the next great catalyst for the precious metals.

To learn more about our Market Outlook, you can visit this page: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading/2010-market-outlook-report-by-jordan-roy-byrne-cmt/?p=5312/

Good luck and good investing in 2010!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
http://www.trendsman.com
http://www.thedailygold.com
trendsmanresearch@gmail.com

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules