Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

China's New Commodity Hoard

Commodities / China Economy Jun 12, 2009 - 02:24 PM GMT

By: Jennifer_Barry

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn April, China announced that it purchased 454 metric tons of gold over the past six years. However, gold isn’t the only metal the Chinese have been buying. According to Michael Gaylard of Freight Investor Services, “They are building up some stockpiles right across the commodity spectrum, from base metals to coal.”


China is taking advantage of the low commodity prices to scoop up bargains. The nation has been buying so much copper that the market slipped into a deficit in February, drawing down stockpiles, as average mine utilization fell 9%. Iron ore imports were up 33% in April, to a record 57 million metric tons. Chinese purchasers visited Mozambique in May to lock in deals for base metals like aluminum. The nation just finalized a $9 billion deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo to develop copper and cobalt mines in exchange for infrastructure projects like roads, schools and hospitals. Recently thwarted in its attempts to invest in Rio Tinto, China has reached an agreement to acquire an Australian miner, Oz Minerals.

In addition to coal, China is assuring its access to adequate energy supplies. The nation increased its oil imports 13.6% in April. The government also awarded a US$25 billion loan to two Russian energy companies to lock in 300,000 barrels of crude per day for 20 years. This is part of the Chinese strategy to increase its crude stockpiles from about 30 days of use to 90-100 days supply.

China is not neglecting its need to secure food stores, either. The official Xinhua news agency is citing  experts who recommend the nation accumulate 50 million metric tons of soybeans. The Chinese are purchasing tons of soybeans now, to try to avoid end of crop year rationing. Stockpiles are expected to run very low before the new crop is harvested in the fall, as Argentina’s harvest was much smaller than expected. Much higher prices are anticipated this summer.

Although soybeans have gained more than 46% since March, there is still room for appreciation. As of two weeks ago, Chinese soybeans cost more than $2 per bushel more than U.S. beans, so the backhaul and arbitrage makes it worthwhile to import this essential foodstuff.

I predicted tight supplies and Chinese purchases in my essay A Growing Problem, which was published on  several financial websites in December. That week, we saw a bottom in the grain complex, and the beginning of a robust rally in the CRB.

The Move to Real Assets

Readers of lemetropolecafe.com are already aware that back in April 2006 I formulated and publicized a theory that China was quietly shifting from dollar-denominated Treasury assets into commodity stockpiles. Their targets included especially copper and other metals, but also agricultural commodities. Peter Rhalter on the Café christened it the “China Hoard Theory.”

Through the years I have uncovered additional data to support my theory. I detailed the rotational model the Chinese use to purchase metals on the London Metal Exchange, allowing inventories to build and the price to fall. Once the commodity was cheap again and inventory was plentiful, China would rotate back to purchasing that metal. I articulated the backhaul shipping mechanism they used to cheaply ship heavy commodities back to China on the return voyages of ships loaded with consumer goods.

China’s public acknowledgement that it had secretly built gold reserves has opened eyes. This has now spurred important voices in the financial world to align with the China Hoard Theory, acknowledging a broader Chinese strategy to get out of the dollar and into real assets. The Royal Bank of Canada stated that “China is stockpiling commodities such as copper and iron ore as part of a reallocation of its sovereign wealth amid concern that the value of its dollar assets may decline.” In April, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard realized the folly of China's vendor financing with its customer America in a severe economic downturn. Also that month, Jim Puplava and Puru Saxena analyzed the Chinese desire to exchange paper promises for shrinking supplies of depleting minerals. Having correctly called China’s commodity strategy years ago is a great triumph for me as an analyst.

Other pundits have deprecated the commodity rebound, claiming that China is just spending stimulus money that will soon run out. However, I think this uptrend is more than an aberration. Instead of “green shoots” in the U.S. we are seeing bamboo shoots in Asia. Even with China having its worst year since 1992, its first quarter GDP grew 6.1% year-over-year, a strength other countries envy.

Industrial production was strong last month as well. Zapata George Blake notes that tire plants in China are running full shifts - a leading indicator of a rebound in auto manufacturing. This will continue to boost the price of related commodities like palladium, which made a recent high of $262, up 45% for the year.

Other measures corroborate a recovery in China. The CRB Index is up nearly 32% since its lows in December. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global shipping demand, reached 4,291 this week, more than six times its December low of 663, but still less than half its 2008 high. It smashed its 200 day moving average to the upside, and went nearly parabolic before correcting. This indicates higher demand as well as some loosening in the credit markets.

The resurgence in these indices, and the rise of U.S. stock markets on poor fundamentals is also signalling a resurgence of price inflation. The world’s central banks can’t flood the globe with liquidity in a move they euphemistically call qualitative easing without pushing the cost of goods much higher. The Federal Reserve is the globe’s worst offender in this area, swapping banks’ toxic assets for Treasuries which these financial institutions can use as collateral for other risky deals. With banks deemed “too big to fail,” the taxpayer is on the hook for any further losses, and the regulators do little to rein in excesses.

I believe that hyperinflation is sadly inevitable, so it’s wise to copy the Chinese. Make sure you have a heavy weighting in the precious metals, the safest assets of all. Then swap your excess dollars for real assets like nonperishable food and other necessities. Avoid leverage in all commodity investments, as the volatility can cause big losses if you are on margin.

by Jennifer Barry

Global Asset Strategist

http://www.globalassetstrategist.com

Copyright 2009 Jennifer Barry

Hello, I'm Jennifer Barry and I want to help you not only preserve your wealth, but add to your nest egg. How can I do this? I investigate the financial universe for undervalued assets you can invest in. Then I write about them in my monthly newsletter, Global Asset Strategist.

Disclaimer: Precious metals, commodity stocks, futures, and associated investments can be very volatile. Prices may rise and fall quickly and unpredictably. It may take months or years to see a significant profit. The owners and employees of Global Asset Strategist own some or all of the investments profiled in the newsletter, and will benefit from a price increase. We will disclose our ownership position when we recommend an asset and if we sell any investments previously recommended. We don't receive any compensation from companies for profiling any stock. Information published on this website and/or in the newsletter comes from sources thought to be reliable. This information may not be complete or correct. Global Asset Strategist does not employ licensed financial advisors, and does not give investment advice. Suggestions to buy or sell any asset listed are based on the opinions of Jennifer Barry only. Please conduct your own research before making any purchases, and don't spend more than you can afford. We recommend that you consult a trusted financial advisor who understands your individual situation before committing any capital.

Jennifer Barry Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in